Post season Stuff


Re: Post season Stuff

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:21 am

DComeaux wrote:We can only hope for an early, extended deep freeze to the north.

Starting right at Thanksgiving and sticking around to the end of January with a few ups and downs to melt the snow, but not the ice :thumbsup:

Yep that would be perfect. Mallards and geese at the cooling lake before the end of duck season and then a little yo-yo'ing of the geese with the snow to keep them from getting stale and my crazy good season so far could keep rolling until the end of January :thumbsup:

Although, as I've mentioned before with the growth in warm water discharges, I think snow becomes as important as the cold. You need both to move the hardiest of birds. Too little snow and we don't get the big push. Too much snow and we watch them fly over all day long.

A good coating of snow, but not too deep is perfect. It really makes the decoys visible for a long ways.
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby DComeaux » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:32 am

Louisiana went from this harvest estimate in 1999-2000 (2,055,300±13%) to this in 2018-19 (505,800±32%). Imagine in the field sightings using those harvest numbers.
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby Darren » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:18 am

DComeaux wrote:Louisiana went from this harvest estimate in 1999-2000 (2,055,300±13%) to this in 2018-19 (505,800±32%). Imagine in the field sightings using those harvest numbers.


If you plotted it for trend/statistical consideration, you'd throw out the 2018-2019 number as an outlier given its departure from the previous year (50%), and the MUCH gentler (though downward) trend longer term.

Stats or not, Im calling it an anomaly given the weather until proven otherwise over the course of a few seasons (or more than a few really).
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby DComeaux » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:30 am

Here's the harvest estimates by year for Louisiana.

1999 - 2,149,500 These three and earlier years were awesome. Then the bottom fell out.
2000 - 2,055,300
2001- 1,267,300
2002 - 834,100
2003 - 1,344,300
2004 - 822,000 Somewhere in this time span is when I dropped my lease of 15+ years in the Marsh on the Vermilion bay. That place has never recovered
2005 - 877,000

2006 - 1,332,200
2007 - 1,532,800
2008 - 1,750,500 In these years, roughly, I was involved with deer hunting at my company owners camp in Mississippi. I would get upset when I heard the geese fly over in the fall while on stand or working in a food plot. My heart had never left the duck blind.
2009 - 1,848,400
2010 - 2,736,300

2011 - 2,818,800 Picked up a rice blind and did okay for the first year and it fell off drastically for the following years.
2012 - 2,762,700
2013 - 2,390,500
2014 - 1,861,400
2015 - 846,300

2016 - 857,000 ...and this is where we are today.
2017 - 1,083,900
2018 - 505,800

From roughly 2006 to 2013 you can probably find many threads on hunting sites that were on the subject of the accuracy of the harvest numbers. There's just not enough birds making it here to fill all of the gar holes.
Last edited by DComeaux on Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby Darren » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:35 am

DComeaux wrote:Here's the harvest estimates by year for Louisiana.

1999 - 2,149,500
2000 - 2,055,300
2001- 1,267,300
2002 - 834,100
2003 - 1,344,300
2004 - 822,000 Somewhere in this time span is when I dropped my lease of 15+ years in the Marsh on the Vermilion bay. That place has never recovered
2005 - 877,000

2006 - 1,332,200
2007 - 1,532,800
2008 - 1,750,500 In these years, roughly, I was involved with deer hunting at my company owners camp in Mississippi. I would get upset when I heard the geese fly over in the fall while on stand or working in a food plot. My heart had never left the duck blind.
2009 - 1,848,400
2010 - 2,736,300

2011 - 2,818,800 Picked up a rice blind and did okay for the first year and it fell off drastically for the following years.
2012 - 2,762,700
2013 - 2,390,500
2014 - 1,861,400
2015 - 846,300

2016 - 857,000 ...and this is where we are today.
2017 - 1,083,900
2018 - 505,800

From roughly 2006 to 2013 you can probably find many threads on hunting sites that were on the subject of the accuracy of the harvest numbers. There's just not enough birds making it here to fill all of the gar holes.



Mr Goins to Larry R. at meeting last year "In 1998 XYZ law was changed and the hunting in Louisiana has steadily declined since"

Huh?? Look at 2010 to 2013 alone, geez.

Dave I think pressure is creating gar holes where birds previously enjoyed going. We may be down total hunters, but those with the means to get out there are now better equipped to go "scouting" i.e. running around in mud boat way up in the boonies where birds were previously safe and comfy for the season. Case in point, what's this year's latest and greatest offering on the surface drive market? How many horses are we putting back there now? It's an arms race......because it's so profitable to do so. Until it isn't........
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby Rick » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:41 am

DComeaux wrote:There's just not enough birds making it here to fill all of the gar holes.


Only been here since '83, but there's never been a shortage of near birdless gar holes during my time in Louisiana. But Darren's right, pressure (and changing land use) has made a blue slew of new ones.
Last edited by Rick on Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby DComeaux » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:43 am

Darren wrote:
DComeaux wrote:Here's the harvest estimates by year for Louisiana.

1999 - 2,149,500
2000 - 2,055,300
2001- 1,267,300
2002 - 834,100
2003 - 1,344,300
2004 - 822,000 Somewhere in this time span is when I dropped my lease of 15+ years in the Marsh on the Vermilion bay. That place has never recovered
2005 - 877,000

2006 - 1,332,200
2007 - 1,532,800
2008 - 1,750,500 In these years, roughly, I was involved with deer hunting at my company owners camp in Mississippi. I would get upset when I heard the geese fly over in the fall while on stand or working in a food plot. My heart had never left the duck blind.
2009 - 1,848,400
2010 - 2,736,300

2011 - 2,818,800 Picked up a rice blind and did okay for the first year and it fell off drastically for the following years.
2012 - 2,762,700
2013 - 2,390,500
2014 - 1,861,400
2015 - 846,300

2016 - 857,000 ...and this is where we are today.
2017 - 1,083,900
2018 - 505,800

From roughly 2006 to 2013 you can probably find many threads on hunting sites that were on the subject of the accuracy of the harvest numbers. There's just not enough birds making it here to fill all of the gar holes.



Mr Goins to Larry R. at meeting last year "In 1998 XYZ law was changed and the hunting in Louisiana has steadily declined since"

Huh?? Look at 2010 to 2013 alone, geez.

Dave I think pressure is creating gar holes where birds previously enjoyed going. We may be down total hunters, but those with the means to get out there are now better equipped to go "scouting" i.e. running around in mud boat way up in the boonies where birds were previously safe and comfy for the season. Case in point, what's this year's latest and greatest offering on the surface drive market? How many horses are we putting back there now? It's an arms race......because it's so profitable to do so. Until it isn't........


Hopefully we hit the bottom of a cycle last year and are back on the rise.
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:45 am

DComeaux wrote:Louisiana went from this harvest estimate in 1999-2000 (2,055,300±13%) to this in 2018-19 (505,800±32%). Imagine in the field sightings using those harvest numbers.

You can't pick the peak and the valley and use that for your trend.

Why not pick 2002 where Louisiana harvested 834,000 ducks and 2018 where you all harvested 1,084,000 ducks? Looks like things are going up and up and up :thumbsup:

Why is 1999 more representative than 2002?

Cherry picking the data doesn't make your case for you.

Year to year there are HUGE variations driven by weather. Both weather on the breeding grounds and weather during the migration. Picking the high and the low is no more telling than picking the low and the high. It just tells what you want to see and not what actually is.

Darren wrote:Stats or not, Im calling it an anomaly given the weather until proven otherwise over the course of a few seasons (or more than a few really).
It was a terrible breeding year and a terrible migration year. You all got hit with the double whammy. It doesn't seem surprising that you all will have greater year over year swings since it would seem being at the end of the line for most ducks, many of which only go that far if forced to by weather will be more sensitive to further north where ducks may be late, but most will still get there at some point. At the end, they really may never get there in a bad migration year. However, in rough years for us up here, most ducks have run out of room to go south since they are not going to cross the Gulf like some species (or go around, don't know how they get that far south). So then you have a banner year. Good breeding and good migration and you get 2M. Bad breeding and bad migration and you get 0.5M at current population levels. That seems to be where you are at. A factor of 4 variation from the best of the best to the worst of the worst with a typical year being around 1M with more typical variations of a few hundred thousand either direction.

And with a warming trend for the winters, you would expect the slight downward trend as you noted. It SEEMS consistent with what we all know from the anecdotal evidence we experience.
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby DComeaux » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:53 am

SpinnerMan wrote:
DComeaux wrote:Louisiana went from this harvest estimate in 1999-2000 (2,055,300±13%) to this in 2018-19 (505,800±32%). Imagine in the field sightings using those harvest numbers.

You can't pick the peak and the valley and use that for your trend.

Why not pick 2002 where Louisiana harvested 834,000 ducks and 2018 where you all harvested 1,084,000 ducks? Looks like things are going up and up and up :thumbsup:

Why is 1999 more representative than 2002?

Cherry picking the data doesn't make your case for you.

Year to year there are HUGE variations driven by weather. Both weather on the breeding grounds and weather during the migration. Picking the high and the low is no more telling than picking the low and the high. It just tells what you want to see and not what actually is.



I only did that to make it more dramatic... :D
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby Darren » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:25 pm

DC maybe one other hot item to kick around as we count down to this weekend is from a tidbit that was mentioned in that video trailer you posted........this concept of specks rebounding off the gulf.

Are we pressuring them back northward? Arky is shooting them too, so why would they go back there? Is it just a game of ping pong with specks going back and forth?


PS What yall cookin?
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:04 pm

I didn't see your annual harvest and had just pulled a few data points from the web. So I was very low on the average and your variation. The average is 1.5M and the variation is around 0.7M. With best of the best higher than I thought. Over 1/3rd of the years have a more than a 0.5M swing up or down from the previous year. It's just a highly variable system. There is probably correlation from year to year, but for such a small sample size, that could just be more coincidence than trend.

Two sources of correlation. One is good/bad breeding years effecting the next few years. The other is the confidence of the hunters. As success goes up, more hunters put in more effort and as a result kill more birds. Just like people chase the stock market. When they hear others did good, they get in. When they hear others did poorly, they get out. Last year was nonstop bitching about a bad year so how many hunters were discouraged from going out? And this was on top of a few bad years. If this year you all get back up around 1M, it will bring out more hunters, so you can expect a trend like you see from 2004. Then again, another bad weather year and you stick around the floor until people get convinced the tide has turned.

How people respond to highly variable systems is always very interesting. Many are 100% sure they see the pattern in the chaos. Las Vegas is built on these people. It's hard to sort out real trends from random ones and ones we just are inclined by our personality to see. The old glass half full versus half empty views of things.

I just wish my glass was as full as you all's glass is in the worst year.

LAHarvest.jpg
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby DComeaux » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:23 pm

Rick wrote:
DComeaux wrote:There's just not enough birds making it here to fill all of the gar holes.


Only been here since '83, but there's never been a shortage of near birdless gar holes during my time in Louisiana. But Darren's right, pressure (and changing land use) has made a blue slew of new ones.



I remember a time when for years every little pond and hole with water around the house had ducks in it during the winter. My nephew shot a snow goose at the pond that is now on my property near my house. This same little pond had teal stop off from time to time during their early migration. I even called a small flock of mallards down in a dry timber piece near a bayou on our property where I now live and we took a couple.
During the winter I'd go back there often near the bayou where I would routinely see early morning migrants in V's headed south, some I'd even get to play with. I still occasionally walk out in the mornings and evenings today, but that show is no more. I guess this is what I mean by gar holes. Places that a duck wouldn't normally want to be, but there were enough of them to cover and give opportunity to more people.

I know things change, but I know what used to be, I've seen it. It's just disheartening, and I guess a little upsetting for me. I grew up on a dairy farm where my parents worked 24/7/365 so dads time with me in the field was limited, but he did what he could. My passion for waterfowl began at an early age and was fueled even more by the limited chances I had. My bedroom walls were covered with duck ID posters and what ever else I could get my hands on that pertained to waterfowl. I'd pack a sandwich and my gun and walk for miles around the house in my hunting excursions, dreaming of the day I'd get to sit next to a spread of decoys on a sure enough duck hole. I just hate to see that dream slipping away.
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby Darren » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:25 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:I didn't see your annual harvest and had just pulled a few data points from the web. So I was very low on the average and your variation. The average is 1.5M and the variation is around 0.7M. With best of the best higher than I thought. Over 1/3rd of the years have a more than a 0.5M swing up or down from the previous year. It's just a highly variable system. There is probably correlation from year to year, but for such a small sample size, that could just be more coincidence than trend.

Two sources of correlation. One is good/bad breeding years effecting the next few years. The other is the confidence of the hunters. As success goes up, more hunters put in more effort and as a result kill more birds. Just like people chase the stock market. When they hear others did good, they get in. When they hear others did poorly, they get out. Last year was nonstop bitching about a bad year so how many hunters were discouraged from going out? And this was on top of a few bad years. If this year you all get back up around 1M, it will bring out more hunters, so you can expect a trend like you see from 2004. Then again, another bad weather year and you stick around the floor until people get convinced the tide has turned.

How people respond to highly variable systems is always very interesting. Many are 100% sure they see the pattern in the chaos. Las Vegas is built on these people. It's hard to sort out real trends from random ones and ones we just are inclined by our personality to see. The old glass half full versus half empty views of things.

I just wish my glass was as full as you all's glass is in the worst year.

LAHarvest.jpg


Your mind appears to work like mine on crunching numbers, maybe an engineer?

This is the graphic Larry shared at the commission meeting recently:

La harvests 2000 to 2018.jpg
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby DComeaux » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:44 pm

Darren wrote:DC maybe one other hot item to kick around as we count down to this weekend is from a tidbit that was mentioned in that video trailer you posted........this concept of specks rebounding off the gulf.

Are we pressuring them back northward? Arky is shooting them too, so why would they go back there? Is it just a game of ping pong with specks going back and forth?


PS What yall cookin?



I know of the Pintail study done with transmitters some years back that showed those moving back and forth with a warm up and cold fronts, but I don't think the specks are coming back. If I'm not mistaken, last year one traveled far north during the season and did not return. I know the pressure is tremendous on those down here and is increasing rapidly in Arkansas.

I think Friday night we'll have chicken in a gravy (sticky chicken). I love chicken thighs in a gravy with sweet peas and a cabbage coleslaw. This slaw is finely sliced with vinegar, salt and black pepper only. May even pop a few bread rolls in the oven. Haven't decided on Saturday's meal yet. Blake took off Friday so he's headed down there early with the go devil boat and will have it in the water for Saturday morning. He will also cook that day.
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby SpinnerMan » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:59 pm

Darren wrote:Your mind appears to work like mine on crunching numbers, maybe an engineer?

Definitely an engineer.
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Re: Post season Stuff

Postby Darren » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:07 pm

SpinnerMan wrote:
Darren wrote:Your mind appears to work like mine on crunching numbers, maybe an engineer?

Definitely an engineer.



Ha, figured as much. Me too
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