DComeaux wrote:Darren wrote:
Dave, we're using the 2019 survey for discussion,
Those are comments from the 2019-2020 surveys.
I forgot he had updated the November counts adding the NE and NW sections of the state.
The 1.04 million ducks on this survey is the 3rd lowest November estimate since this survey began in 1969 ahead of only 2008 (958,000) and 2013 (1,02 million). It is barely half the most recent 5-year and long-term averages of 2.0 million.
This narrative underlined below, from your December quote above, is straight off the Dec 2018 survey.
The 1.94 million ducks estimated on this survey is 36% lower than last December’s estimate of 3.02
million and 32% below the long-term December average of 2.84 million. The Southeast portion of this
survey was not completed in November, so no comparisons can be made for that region. However,
estimates increased markedly from November in both Southwest (247,000 to 886,000) and at Catahoula
Lake (103,000 to 156,000) survey regions. All species increased from November in SW LA except for
mottled ducks, which were essentially unchanged.
But careful gents, the argument here is not that birds come later/aren't here in November/season should be set back, the narrative played and played here is "they don't come any more/what little still comes/etc. etc. etc. etc" which the December 2019 survey clearly refutes.
Now, anyone can see there's plainly some alarm in the dwindling NOVEMBER surveys, but as our most recent December survey can attest (and with nothing but Pacific fronts driving it), the birds do in fact still come to our state, within 10% of the long term average.....hardly a
sky is falling data point. Are the masses coming later? Maybe, but they're still coming. Are they coming to our favorite spots......maybe not. But still coming nonetheless. One example on my end of things may be that much of Delacroix struggled, there's a blind in every other pond, and mud boats run rampant. BUT the Biloxi Marsh, with its over 35,000 acres of public salt marsh, had a strong season, with mud boat restrictions and sprawling habitat, very low hunter concentrations. Food for thought, perhaps, as the survey indicated in the below discussion.
Why in SE La were the birds so numerous in a couple of areas but sparse in more traditional areas; see narrative from Dec 2019 survey below:
There were a few very large concentrations with broad expanses of very few ducks. The most extreme example was in SE LA where large numbers of ring-necked ducks were counted in the fresh marsh of upper Terrebonne Parish SSE of Amelia, then very few ducks were counted on the next 4 transect lines and the line just south of New Orleans for monitoring the Caernarvon freshwater diversion. Then another tremendous concentration of mostly gadwalls, pintails, and ring-necked ducks was encountered from the West Bay sediment diversion on the west side of the Mississippi River north to past Venice on the east side. Those 2 locations accounted for about 80% of the estimate from the entire SE LA survey region.
Clearly they're keeing in on certain habitats, maybe with less pressure? Do know that some guys I know of that hunted Venice hard were amassing phenomenal straps most of the season with grays, pins, cans, wigeon, etc. like Venice "should be", and wasn't, last year.
Also alarming, though largely out of our control, would be the fewer birds counted in SE La in the Jan 2020 survey. Clearly when mild weather allows, these birds are rebounding off of us and heading northward. See notes from Jan 2020 survey below:
The 2.30 million ducks on this survey is 11% lower than the 2.57 million estimated in December, and 22% below the long-term January average of 2.96 million. In the last 6 years, the January estimate has been essentially the same or lower than in December, and this is the 3rd time during that period it has been at least 10% lower.
The estimate in SE LA fell from 1.33 million in December to only 745,000 primarily due to big declines in pintails (215,000 to 44,000) and gadwalls (467,000 to 191,000). However, estimates for all dabbling ducks except blue-winged teal declined from December, as did that for ring-necked ducks (328,000 to 246,000) in that region.
Note: numbers
increased as you'd figure it should in SW La, save for the grays.
In contrast, the overall estimate in SW LA increased from 1.09 million in December to 1.48 million due to increases in green-winged teal (91,000 to 348,000), shovelers (124,000 to 227,000), pintails (29,000 to 129,000), and all 3 diving ducks (155,000 to 328,000) exceeding declines in all other dabbling ducks, especially gadwalls (470,000 to 296,000). Ducks were also more dispersed in SW LA compared to December with the largest concentrations of ducks seen on Rockefeller Refuge, in the marsh between Little Pecan and Grand Lakes, and on the sewage lagoon near Rayne.