WaterfowlForum.Net

Came across the below paper from 2006. This figure is fascinating. Dr. Heitmeyer predicted many of the issues we’re facing today, nearly 20 years ago.

https://greenhead.s3.amazonaws.com/Gree ... s-2006.pdf

It's all there.

I'm stealing this.

DComeaux wrote:I'm stealing this.

Please do!

WOW..........and after seeing the steady decline year over year, seems to be pretty damn accurate! Thanks DE!!!!

But is it true?

I tried to do a quick search. The only thing I found was Iowa. They shot more ducks in the 70's then they did from the 90's onwards.

Does the data actually bear this out? Don't have the time to look into it, but the one small data point doesn't seem to bear this out.

When you have basically no snow in South Dakota, parts of North Dakota, southern Minnesota, and points south in February. Even parts of Canada only have about 3" of snow. That's going to be a big problem for moving birds southward. And we've had 60 day seasons for a long time. That's going to shift populations from high to low pressure areas. I think it is a number of things. Not sure if SWD are one of those. Certainly could be.

Yep, Certainly very difficult to prove one thing is causing a decline since there’s so many factors that go in. The game farm genetics seems to be one that is pretty straight forward with band recoveries.

He did cite a study out of Manitoba that said spinners made hunters 24 times more effective in dry fields than without. That was staggering, and has probably come down since that study was done, but I believe it having dry field hunted in South Dakota last year.

Duck Engr wrote:He did cite a study out of Manitoba that said spinners made hunters 24 times more effective in dry fields than without. That was staggering, and has probably come down since that study was done, but I believe it having dry field hunted in South Dakota last year.

Certainly a huge help in dry fields. Seems like you can't have enough motion for the ducks.

From my summary

SpinnerMan wrote: I definitely feel more confidence on the field hunting ducks which I did more than I had the last few years and hope to do a lot more of that in the future. I think I need more spinners!

BTW, SpinnerMan is from my first forum which was a steelhead trout fishing forum and spinner is for inline spinners that I make myself and have caught everything from common carp to king salmon on my homemade spinners. Especially effective for trout fishing.

But I think next year it will be for all the spinners in my dry field duck spread

Haha dual purpose!

I’m not exactly sure how I ended up down this rabbit hole, but I did. There are some folks clamoring for 3/30, so I started to look at how seasons are set. What I found really surprised me. This is the chart they used to set the 2022 season framework. This was the last season they used the May pond counts in just Canada (that part matters) along with mallard bpop to set seasons. After 2022, they started using May ponds in both Canada AND the US. This required a new chart because if you used May ponds for both Canada and the US combined on a chart designed just for Canada May ponds you’d be skewed more liberal. And that part made sense. What doesn’t make sense is the new chart. It’s even MORE liberal than using both Canada and US pond counts on the 2022 chart. when I took the bpop and Canada May ponds from 2024 (used to set 2025-2026 season) and put it on the chart from 2022, its wayyyy into the restrictive seasons. In fact, if we’d been using that 2022 chart, this past season (2024-2025) would also have been a restrictive (3 and 30) framework. I’ve reached out to people on the flyway council as well as DU’s podcast to see if they’ll put together an episode to figure out what they heck is going on. Kinda stinks to me.

Good luck.

Keep us posted. Thanks

Duck Engr wrote:After 2022, they started using May ponds in both Canada AND the US. This required a new chart because if you used May ponds for both Canada and the US combined on a chart designed just for Canada May ponds you’d be skewed more liberal.

That's not my recollection, though of course could be flawed, and what I'm digging up doesn't align with that premise. See below

https://www.gameandfishmag.com/editoria ... %20million.

On the Canadian side of the border, the drop was even more precipitous, falling to 2.86 million in 2019 as compared to 3.66 million a year ago. That figure is 22 percent below 2018 numbers and 19 percent versus the LTA.

On the U.S. side of the border, the habitat news was much better with May pond counts at 2.14 million versus 1.57 million a year ago. This year’s figure for the northern U.S. is up 36 percent from a year ago and up 26 percent over the LTA.

For example, that adds to essentially 5 MM ponds for the year, and that's what appears to be cited in the article? from 2019. I'd have to dig on some old stuff Larry sent me to go further back but that just doesn't seem at all my recollection of past management.

Duck Engr wrote:
I’m not exactly sure how I ended up down this rabbit hole, but I did. There are some folks clamoring for 3/30, so I started to look at how seasons are set. What I found really surprised me. This is the chart they used to set the 2022 season framework. This was the last season they used the May pond counts in just Canada (that part matters) along with mallard bpop to set seasons. After 2022, they started using May ponds in both Canada AND the US. This required a new chart because if you used May ponds for both Canada and the US combined on a chart designed just for Canada May ponds you’d be skewed more liberal. And that part made sense. What doesn’t make sense is the new chart. It’s even MORE liberal than using both Canada and US pond counts on the 2022 chart. when I took the bpop and Canada May ponds from 2024 (used to set 2025-2026 season) and put it on the chart from 2022, its wayyyy into the restrictive seasons. In fact, if we’d been using that 2022 chart, this past season (2024-2025) would also have been a restrictive (3 and 30) framework. I’ve reached out to people on the flyway council as well as DU’s podcast to see if they’ll put together an episode to figure out what they heck is going on. Kinda stinks to me.

I saw the revised table posted not long ago where the BPOP numbers were decreased and there were mostly "Ls" on the entire chart. Who is actually in control of making these decisions?

Darren wrote:

Duck Engr wrote:After 2022, they started using May ponds in both Canada AND the US. This required a new chart because if you used May ponds for both Canada and the US combined on a chart designed just for Canada May ponds you’d be skewed more liberal.

That's not my recollection, though of course could be flawed, and what I'm digging up doesn't align with that premise. See below

https://www.gameandfishmag.com/editoria ... %20million.

On the Canadian side of the border, the drop was even more precipitous, falling to 2.86 million in 2019 as compared to 3.66 million a year ago. That figure is 22 percent below 2018 numbers and 19 percent versus the LTA.

On the U.S. side of the border, the habitat news was much better with May pond counts at 2.14 million versus 1.57 million a year ago. This year’s figure for the northern U.S. is up 36 percent from a year ago and up 26 percent over the LTA.

For example, that adds to essentially 5 MM ponds for the year, and that's what appears to be cited in the article? from 2019. I'd have to dig on some old stuff Larry sent me to go further back but that just doesn't seem at all my recollection of past management.

Here’s the 2025-2026 season (2024 May ponds and bpop). Notice footnote C, United States and Canada. Now go look at the 2022 chart’s footnote C, just Canada.

DComeaux wrote:

Duck Engr wrote:
I’m not exactly sure how I ended up down this rabbit hole, but I did. There are some folks clamoring for 3/30, so I started to look at how seasons are set. What I found really surprised me. This is the chart they used to set the 2022 season framework. This was the last season they used the May pond counts in just Canada (that part matters) along with mallard bpop to set seasons. After 2022, they started using May ponds in both Canada AND the US. This required a new chart because if you used May ponds for both Canada and the US combined on a chart designed just for Canada May ponds you’d be skewed more liberal. And that part made sense. What doesn’t make sense is the new chart. It’s even MORE liberal than using both Canada and US pond counts on the 2022 chart. when I took the bpop and Canada May ponds from 2024 (used to set 2025-2026 season) and put it on the chart from 2022, its wayyyy into the restrictive seasons. In fact, if we’d been using that 2022 chart, this past season (2024-2025) would also have been a restrictive (3 and 30) framework. I’ve reached out to people on the flyway council as well as DU’s podcast to see if they’ll put together an episode to figure out what they heck is going on. Kinda stinks to me.

I saw the revised table posted not long ago where the BPOP numbers were decreased and there were mostly "Ls" on the entire chart. Who is actually in control of making these decisions?

That’s what I’m trying to figure out so I can ask why it changed. There are a bunch of equations listed in the adaptive harvest management pdf. Seems like they’re relying on models. Wish I had more time. I’ve found the following contacts in the yearly adaptive harvest management pdf.

Rick wrote:Good luck.

Not holding my breath. Trying to find someone with more stroke than just some duck hunter from Alabama.

Darren wrote:

Duck Engr wrote:After 2022, they started using May ponds in both Canada AND the US. This required a new chart because if you used May ponds for both Canada and the US combined on a chart designed just for Canada May ponds you’d be skewed more liberal.

That's not my recollection, though of course could be flawed, and what I'm digging up doesn't align with that premise. See below

https://www.gameandfishmag.com/editoria ... %20million.

On the Canadian side of the border, the drop was even more precipitous, falling to 2.86 million in 2019 as compared to 3.66 million a year ago. That figure is 22 percent below 2018 numbers and 19 percent versus the LTA.

On the U.S. side of the border, the habitat news was much better with May pond counts at 2.14 million versus 1.57 million a year ago. This year’s figure for the northern U.S. is up 36 percent from a year ago and up 26 percent over the LTA.

For example, that adds to essentially 5 MM ponds for the year, and that's what appears to be cited in the article? from 2019. I'd have to dig on some old stuff Larry sent me to go further back but that just doesn't seem at all my recollection of past management.

I wasn’t saying the May ponds weren’t counted on the US side of the border prior to 2022. Just that according to the footnote of the chart, they weren’t used to set seasons as restrictive, liberal, etc. Maybe Larry can chime and set me straight if I’m off base with what I think I’ve found. These are May pond counts the last few years for US and Canada. Some light bedtime reading below if you’re interested. Careful, it’s a slippery slope down the rabbit hole.

https://www.fws.gov/sites/default/files ... t-2024.pdf

https://www.fws.gov/sites/default/files ... t-2024.pdf

Duck Engr wrote:Seems like they’re relying on models.

I don't know what they are doing with the ducks. I know I remember reading somewhere a few years ago that they were changing the approach a bit, but don't really remember any details.

I know with Canada geese. When I first started hunting in Illinois. You had a card that you had to log all your geese and call it in at the end of the day. If the total hit some number the season closed early. It's in no small part why we get so many goose bands, I'm sure. After doing this for a number of years, they felt they had all the data they needed to set the seasons and limits based on their models. I'm sure they are doing similar things with other species to improve their understanding of the dynamic behavior of these species as weather and other things impact their breeding success, hunting success, etc.

I think the problem is not that they are off much in the aggregate, but that the populations are managed in aggregate. If locally there are changes in land use, or that the liberal season and limits result in excess pressure locally, that does not impact the federal limits at all. The feds aren't protecting your local hunting. They are simply ensuring that in aggregate that it is not excessive. The feds don't care if there are 10 million ducks in Louisiana or that 10 million stays north or moves west or whatever. It's all the same to them. It of course, is not remotely the same to the people who have the population shift away.

I think many places were too happy to have the liberal seasons and limits even though long term that wasn't good for them. I know where I grew up on the Susquehanna river, I can drive 50 miles of the river and never see a duck. There used to be places that always held ducks and in January when everything froze there were a lot of ducks on the river. But the liberal seasons, once everything froze, there were no refuge for the ducks and all the local ducks scattered on every pond and swamp were now getting banged on relentlessly. Migrants just passed through as they had no refuges to hold them. It's very rare for me to even see a single duck now when I drive the same stretch of river. I get it. If I would have lived there when the season opened up in January, I would have been out there every day I could banging away too and would have been wondering why over time the numbers seemed to be going down

Where in the hell is Cooksey when we need him?

SpinnerMan wrote:

Duck Engr wrote:Seems like they’re relying on models.

I don't know what they are doing with the ducks. I know I remember reading somewhere a few years ago that they were changing the approach a bit, but don't really remember any details.

I know with Canada geese. When I first started hunting in Illinois. You had a card that you had to log all your geese and call it in at the end of the day. If the total hit some number the season closed early. It's in no small part why we get so many goose bands, I'm sure. After doing this for a number of years, they felt they had all the data they needed to set the seasons and limits based on their models. I'm sure they are doing similar things with other species to improve their understanding of the dynamic behavior of these species as weather and other things impact their breeding success, hunting success, etc.

I think the problem is not that they are off much in the aggregate, but that the populations are managed in aggregate. If locally there are changes in land use, or that the liberal season and limits result in excess pressure locally, that does not impact the federal limits at all. The feds aren't protecting your local hunting. They are simply ensuring that in aggregate that it is not excessive. The feds don't care if there are 10 million ducks in Louisiana or that 10 million stays north or moves west or whatever. It's all the same to them. It of course, is not remotely the same to the people who have the population shift away.

I think many places were too happy to have the liberal seasons and limits even though long term that wasn't good for them. I know where I grew up on the Susquehanna river, I can drive 50 miles of the river and never see a duck. There used to be places that always held ducks and in January when everything froze there were a lot of ducks on the river. But the liberal seasons, once everything froze, there were no refuge for the ducks and all the local ducks scattered on every pond and swamp were now getting banged on relentlessly. Migrants just passed through as they had no refuges to hold them. It's very rare for me to even see a single duck now when I drive the same stretch of river. I get it. If I would have lived there when the season opened up in January, I would have been out there every day I could banging away too and would have been wondering why over time the numbers seemed to be going down

I think that’s magnifying local population issues like you said. Heitmeyer is a proponent of managing ducks by flyway and wintering latitude. Difficult to do.

Heitmeyer was the architect of shortstopping. Now he does it privately.

Ducaholic wrote:Heitmeyer was the architect of shortstopping. Now he does it privately.

Can't beat em join em, and make money doing it. Waterfowl management is dead.

DComeaux wrote:

Ducaholic wrote:Heitmeyer was the architect of shortstopping. Now he does it privately.

Can't beat em join em, and make money doing it. Waterfowl management is dead.

He didn't need to beat anything. He was the man in the public sector and now he does it for real money in the private sector.

Based on your text La. is in more trouble than I first thought.

Based on your text La. is in more trouble than I first thought.

We both know that was going on the whole time, even when you and I were attending the commission meetings. What was being presented as public opinion did not align with what was being set.

Darren wrote:

Based on your text La. is in more trouble than I first thought.

We both know that was going on the whole time, even when you and I were attending the commission meetings. What was being presented as public opinion did not align with what was being set.

True but I didn't think it was as egregious as what I read...