Preseason '25-'26

[Rick]

Good fun for discussion. In meantime I'm packing my blindbag with some lil 20 gauge #6's I hope to burn through next Saturday, and maybe a couple on Sunday when its back to reality and we're not hunting teal-friendly ground.

I've found 20ga 6s through IC like tossing grenades at both teal and big ducks - but too apt to remain in either and too small for my metal detector for my table.

Chew carefully my friend.

[Darren]

I emailed DU about just that discrepancy, Dave. They produced the following podcast:

https://youtu.be/X22XQPZbHRI?si=OrIWVpKIL7O_vOc6

Start about the 55 minute mark.

Evidently info gets fed into the computer model each year and it gets reformulated based on habitat, predicted harvest, and surveyed harvest. Now whether or not you think the data is accurate, that’s a fair critique. Best they have currently though.

Without listening yet, but just going by the premise of structure that adapts.......I can get behind that. So many variables have changed, our management has to be adaptable. While it opens door for conspiracy talk regarding Big Duck interference, the idea that we adapt from what was initially started decades ago isn't problematic from my vantage point, at face value.

[Darren]

Good fun for discussion. In meantime I'm packing my blindbag with some lil 20 gauge #6's I hope to burn through next Saturday, and maybe a couple on Sunday when its back to reality and we're not hunting teal-friendly ground.

I've found 20ga 6s through IC like tossing grenades at both teal and big ducks - but too apt to remain in either and too small for my metal detector for my table.

Chew carefully my friend.

Good point! I'm seeing lots of guys tinkering with even 7's and smaller these days for teal and otherwise, chasing pattern density. I'm finding the new M2 20g's SKEET choke really nice for decoying birds but data points pretty limited so far since I only started with it late last season.

With bismuth likely phasing out at least temporarily due to global supply challenges, will be interesting to see where other non-steel options go. I know BOSS is now touting solid copper, vs. their legacy copper-coated bismuth, as well as the uber-expensive TSS.

re: TSS:

The enhanced long range ballistics of TSS shot make Wolfram the ideal choice for passing shots, late season decoy weary birds and cripple clean up. 7’s for geese. 9’s for ducks. Lightly buffered to prevent the small 7 and 9 shot pellets from embedding themselves in the BioTec-infused plastic wad, Wolfram is the most lethal and highly engineered waterfowling shotshell Boss has ever offered.

https://bossshotshells.com/products/20- ... 9-tungsten

[Duck Engr]

Good fun for discussion. In meantime I'm packing my blindbag with some lil 20 gauge #6's I hope to burn through next Saturday, and maybe a couple on Sunday when its back to reality and we're not hunting teal-friendly ground.

I've found 20ga 6s through IC like tossing grenades at both teal and big ducks - but too apt to remain in either and too small for my metal detector for my table.

Chew carefully my friend.

Good point! I'm seeing lots of guys tinkering with even 7's and smaller these days for teal and otherwise, chasing pattern density. I'm finding the new M2 20g's SKEET choke really nice for decoying birds but data points pretty limited so far since I only started with it late last season.

With bismuth likely phasing out at least temporarily due to global supply challenges, will be interesting to see where other non-steel options go. I know BOSS is now touting solid copper, vs. their legacy copper-coated bismuth, as well as the uber-expensive TSS.

re: TSS:

The enhanced long range ballistics of TSS shot make Wolfram the ideal choice for passing shots, late season decoy weary birds and cripple clean up. 7’s for geese. 9’s for ducks. Lightly buffered to prevent the small 7 and 9 shot pellets from embedding themselves in the BioTec-infused plastic wad, Wolfram is the most lethal and highly engineered waterfowling shotshell Boss has ever offered.

https://bossshotshells.com/products/20- ... 9-tungsten

I’ve been shooting 7s out of my 20 ga M2 with a skeet choke for over ten years and have been very happy with it. A scotch double machine.

[Darren]

I presume steel 7's, DE?

I'm not ready to commit to 6s or 7s or smaller in steel for regular season in the marsh just yet, and darn sure won't for rice field where longer shots or geese are in play. But I'm willing to tinker.....

I do have quite a bit of BOSS bismuth #6's on hand for the 20 gage, obtained prior to the price hikes last year, and I'll run that anywhere.

[Duck Engr]

Yep, 2 3/4” low brass steel number 7s. Marketed for doves but I use em for teal. Granted my teal shots are 25 yards and in.

[Darren]

Yep, 2 3/4” low brass steel number 7s. Marketed for doves but I use em for teal. Granted my teal shots are 25 yards and in.

Yea that's the best priced stuff going these days for teal season, non-toxic dove loads usually < $10/box.

[Darren]

Some recent BBWD banding at Miss River grain terminal:

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Credit: LDWF

[Darren]

Blind move/build project went well Sunday morning, and even put eyes on a couple of small teal bunches on the lease

Can see the prior location in the background, of course now with some decent roseau starting to take hold. I'd figure a year from now it'll be pretty substantial from what we've seen in the past. Platform is still there, we just took everything else from it to re-purpose at new blind, screws and all!

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[Duck Engr]

Very nice! Smart dad bringing the fishing pole to keep the young gun entertained while you worked.

[Darren]

Report from outfitter host this morning was "none at last year's honey hole this morning, a few at my other teal hole" so he's opting to go with the latter tomorrow morning with us, which is the location that he saw significant numbers at just a week or so ago. Note, last year on opener eve, he also saw none at either location, and next day for opener had a strong hunt.......such is teal hunting.

I told him he can do what he wants, but I'm loading my gun.


Headed down to camp after lunch with ambitions to head to our non-lease honey hole to see what might be around for potential Day 2 scheme. Steaks on the grill this evening, tomorrow evening LSU with a side of fried trout, snapper, and jumbo softshell crabs.


We'll be ok either way.

Good luck all.

[Darren]

Spent an our or so Friday afternoon in the marsh as planned doing a little blind prep/repair work. Immediately caught site of a couple groups burning the marsh when i got in the area so that was nice, nothing seen while at the blind. Did catch another group nearby on my way out and thankfully grabbed the call in my pocket, got to enjoy working a group of 6 around and around from tucked down in the boat for a few minutes.

Got repairs done quick and took advantage of the time/place to get the new-dog-to-pirogue test/training out of the way. Ended up being a non-issue, she was better in the pirogue than Harry is to this day in his 10th season.....she stays sat when he just has to stand back up, but I left phone and wallet in the boat just in case for first trip.

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Many won't brave 1 dog in a pirogue, much less two! I even rocked it a bit to see if I could rattle her, nada.

[Rick]

Wait 'til she figures out the pirogue's taking her to ducks and see how calm she is...

[DComeaux]

I would never attempt that with my wild child. She's wound tight and releases frequently.

[Darren]

With teal season behind us, turning sights to impactful weather for migration's sake. SURELY we aren't looking at another November opener at 70 degrees, ripping east winds due to a hurricane spinning aimlessly for days in the gulf, and literal storm-high tides, just as we'd set all new records for latest calendar date of 90 deg or more, as in 2024.

With the opener pushed to Nov 15th, the latest I can remember for coastal zone/west zone, I'm hopeful it gives us that one more front that we've seen to make so much of a difference in early season. Too often that front has been a few days away, or even an instance in 2022 where some on this site enjoyed post-front conditions west of me, but we were ahead of front and had 70's and no wind.

Last few opener temps, sure appears to be some correlation of temps vs. success:
11/9/2024 - 70's no big ducks, was essentially teal season 2.0, slow
11/11/2023 - 60's, very few big ducks around, no teal
11/12/2022 - 70's, dead calm, killed half blind limit of grays/pins (big front passed overnight gave way to post-front conditions and reportedly lots of birds for Day 2 but I couldn't go due to illness)
11/13/2021 - 50's slow, few birds
11/14/2020 - 60's slow, few birds
11/9/2019 - 40's (most recent opener of 10 birds or more harvested)
11/10/2018 - 40's w/ ripping north winds, 18 birds, last opener of full blind limits on opening day

Looks like we'll have some high tides this weekend with a low in the northern gulf but no actual storm, the area on that end of the state sure could use the promised rain and the high tides should not be impactful.

Beyond that, seeing some traction now for decent front prospects later half of next week/next weekend.

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Sat night 10/11/25

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[Darren]

Also of note, first online-shared videos of Arky and SW La specks today and yesterday.

[DComeaux]

Fronts have become all but irrelevant to me when it comes to migration. It doesn't seem to produce the desired outcome as in the past.

[Darren]

Fronts have become all but irrelevant to me when it comes to migration. It doesn't seem to produce the desired outcome as in the past.

I'm still seeing plenty of night/day differences on many a post-front day, last season included. So front's I'll be a-watchin'.

[DComeaux]

Fronts have become all but irrelevant to me when it comes to migration. It doesn't seem to produce the desired outcome as in the past.

I'm still seeing plenty of night/day differences on many a post-front day, last season included. So front's I'll be a-watchin'.

I'm sure you've seen the almost daily radar still shots of bird migration over the last few weeks. What percentage of of those do you think are waterfowl? This will play out by the beginning of November, with only the occasional local movement shown in areas to our north after that. These are no doubt waterfowl. It's been this way for several years now.

[Darren]

Log shows me plenty of instances in November even into January where 1-2 days of hunting ahead of a front were drastically different than the next morning post-front, including just last season. Whether its true new birds or shuffled, or both, it works for me.

Promised front for late next week has lost traction but probably somewhere in the Oct 12-18th window there will be some action, seems to be a lot of smoke in that timeframe. In the meantime, and potentially beyond that timeframe if the pattern doesn't flip, we're looking at mostly warm conditions through much of the central and MS flyways.

[Darren]

Promise of things to come, interesting to see if it pans out:

Screenshot 2025-10-03 112723.jpg

[DComeaux]

The marsh should be filling up.

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[Darren]

Looked like some nice wads of specks showing in Arky yesterday, Bill Byers HC

[Ducaholic]

I predict near record low numbers in the November survey unless we start seeing some lows in the 40's here and some near freezing temps from Missouri northward in October. Wish I had better news.

[Darren]

I predict near record low numbers in the November survey unless we start seeing some lows in the 40's here and some near freezing temps from Missouri northward in October. Wish I had better news.

After last year, and from what we've seen so far in October and prospects for weather next week (or lack thereof), I'm likewise getting that feeling of "here we go again." Granted, though, we've got a long way to go to Nov 15. Missouri and Ark are awfully dry so wondering if we might not be better served by fewer but more potent fronts between, say, Oct 25 and Nov 15, rather than these weak ones throughout October.

[Ducaholic]

I predict near record low numbers in the November survey unless we start seeing some lows in the 40's here and some near freezing temps from Missouri northward in October. Wish I had better news.

After last year, and from what we've seen so far in October and prospects for weather next week (or lack thereof), I'm likewise getting that feeling of "here we go again." Granted, though, we've got a long way to go to Nov 15. Missouri and Ark are awfully dry so wondering if we might not be better served by fewer but more potent fronts between, say, Oct 25 and Nov 15, rather than these weak ones throughout October.

I'm onboard

[Darren]

Next week looks boring but lots of smoke around the 17-21 timeframe so hopefully something prevails. Something like shown below can get things going in a hurry with big time north winds and temps plunging. The Euro model also has something similar brewing in that timeframe. Like I said above, lots of smoke so worth watching as we get to this weekend and early next week for more certainty.

Sunday Oct 20

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[Darren]

This seems more likely than something we want, unfortunately. Models just aren't showing anything with a punch consistently, ughhh. Most of next week the heart of the country is locked in with heat.

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and this:

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Like in past years, logging it all so we can look back.

We'll just have to take this lil micro front that just pushed through overnight and bringing nice weekend, and keep watching for end of next week into the following that shows promise.

[Darren]

They're on the way, BirdCast says so! Check out that white hot migration in the Dakotas up to the border.

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