Post-Season Ramblings - Spring 2026

[Darren]

Calendar says February but habits have already turned more spring-like with yard projects, etc. In the duck world, it's really just about watching what the birds might return to on the breeding grounds moving forward in the months to come.

Drought monitor for the Dakota's looks much improved, with weather models hinting at fairly decent chances of snow/rain for the foreseeable.

Screenshot 2026-02-17 145613.jpg

Have (fingers crossed) a penciled day or two at the camp the wknd of Feb 28th so trying to make plans for some blind work at South Roseau and possibly also swapping out my GPS in duck boat for the next screen size larger. We're thinking only one other blind likely needs notable repairs/upgrades with the West Pond needing a new floor and maybe rails. Blind work in near term is of course subject to water levels, so TBD.

[Ericdc]

Canada as of January 31st. PPR looks mostly white and yellow.... better than orange and red.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Darren]

Canada as of January 31st. PPR looks mostly white and yellow.... better than orange and red.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yea really should track that one just the same. Want to say it was pretty dang colorful in recent past.

[Darren]

Got to know Roland through some past writing work, he's been at Dave's Bayou now for a good few years after a while in Arkansas.

To see the staggering swarms of green wings in this video, while also taking into account how many I saw, killed with my groups, or saw photos of others killing, is just bewildering as to the sheer number of them. Also taking into account they've been similarly hammered, anecdotally only of course, for at least the past handful of years as their availability brought them the brunt of hunters disgruntled with lack of "big ducks" they may have preferred but didn't have.

[Rick]

Felt they abandoned me this year, as my parties shot but 107 where we'd killed 173 the season before. Neil, who hunts what had long been CR marsh's strongest teal blind, has suffered a great downturn in their numbers in recent years and suspects they dislike the black-bellies that have taken over and made it the generally hottest spot for them.

[Darren]

Felt they abandoned me this year, as my parties shot but 107 where we'd killed 173 the season before. Neil, who hunts what had long been CR marsh's strongest teal blind, has suffered a great downturn in their numbers in recent years and suspects they dislike the black-bellies that have taken over and made it the generally hottest spot for them.

Black-bellies giveth, and black-bellies taketh away?


Speaking of; not sure I saw clarity on what the proposed early BBWD season means for the Fulvous variety??

[Rick]

Black-bellies giveth, and black-bellies taketh away?

Perhaps. While the black-bellies' penchant for flotant and general avoidance of open water most ducks are prone to use, they can't help but compete for some moist soil feeds puddlers also use.

On the other hand, in years not too far past, Clark and I have enjoyed watching great clouds of preseason teal and pintails fall from the heavens beyond sight to join CR's black-belly show. Can't say with real authority how they got along once on the marsh, beyond that on the one occasion I've sat in the observation/trigger blind on a black-belly and wood duck banding shoot, the two species shared our bait without meaningful discord until two squabbling mottleds showed up and ran them all off for a while: a very small sample.

Speaking of; not sure I saw clarity on what the proposed early BBWD season means for the Fulvous variety??

I'm fairly certain I've seen Larry point out that the early BBWD season would exclude their fulvous cousins.

[Darren]

I'm fairly certain I've seen Larry point out that the early BBWD season would exclude their fulvous cousins.

Oh boy, don't see that going well if in fact the case.

[Darren]

I'm fairly certain I've seen Larry point out that the early BBWD season would exclude their fulvous cousins.

Oh boy, don't see that going well if in fact the case.

Confirmed, no fulvous allowed in the bag. That sure seems like a tall ask for a state known for ID mistakes.

[Ericdc]

Louisiana manages for opportunity instead of resource.

Backwards in my opinion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DComeaux]

Louisiana manages for opportunity instead of resource.

Backwards in my opinion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They'll tell you this straight up. Just ask. It's not a secret. Those that influence the USFWS ask for the same. I feel conservation has taken a back seat to opportunity and money, and has for some time now. I've said it many times, I liken it to welfare, it's going to be hard to take it away.

When you see a matrix change like this in today's waterfowl situation, it makes me wonder.

This past seasons pond and population numbers would have put us in a restrictive season.
2022

2022.png

2024

2024.png

[Ericdc]

I trust the science for now. What I don't like is all the extra hunting pressure we are creating with these extra opportunities l, whether it's veterans in February or BB's in October.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Darren]

I trust the science for now. What I don't like is all the extra hunting pressure we are creating with these extra opportunities l, whether it's veterans in February or BB's in October.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yea would surely rather not see anything hunted after the overall statewide closing bell. As for the black bellies in early October, have to believe that's negligibly impactful given most migrators aren't yet here at that time. In the greater (interior) Delacroix marshes, they are likely going to stack the black bellies without meaningful impact to actual migrators that may be present, which would be blue wings and maybe a few spoons anyway.


Note on that matrix sliding; was there not significant discussion on that vary observation last year? There seemed legit reason as to why it had shifted, and even some historical context of it having shifted both toward the liberal and the conservative at different points in time.

What's lately on my mind, and apparently plenty others, is the highly questionable excuses Big Corn has afoot in their messaging defending its current and continued use. One big name in Arkansas with public platform bangs the drum of "if there were more birds, it wouldn't matter, so lets focus on that," which I have a hard time accepting as reasonable justification.

[Ericdc]

Let's point the finger at ethanol if we are talking "big" corn.

We weren't whining about much 10 years ago when the BPOP was healthier.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Darren]

Let's point the finger at ethanol if we are talking "big" corn.

We weren't whining about much 10 years ago when the BPOP was healthier.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Have to believe the quantity of flooded corn (and enhanced habitat in general in the mid-latitudes) is MUCH different today than ten years ago. But this argument of well there's just less ducks now, so its not our fault for slowing the migration and attempting to hold "our" birds just doesn't fly with me. Make no mistake, that sentiment is exactly what they're all doing, very openly in their public messaging. I'll pull some direct quotes from a couple of recent podcasts for the group, soon.

[Ericdc]

Oh I've seen it and read it. I just think the population is problem #1 (which includes production).

If we don't get that fixed, nothing else matters.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Rick]

Outlaw flooded crops, and folks will turn to moist soil management along with the pressure management that's the real key to holding birds.

[Ericdc]

Outlaw flooded crops, and folks will practice moist soil management along with the pressure management that's the real key to holding birds.

Yep. Those with the means will use them.

I understand why my area doesn't hold a lot of ducks anymore. Until farming changes or habitat is improved locally, we'll kill them on weather days and other than that, that's how it's going to be.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Duck Engr]

Yeah certainly agree that population and PPR drought is the number one problem but am also with Darren that the big boys wouldn’t be beating the drum so hard to keep it and spending $500+/acre to plant it if there wasn’t something to it.

A buddy of mine over a decade ago made an observation calling it the “bullseye” effect. He mused that it allows to hold a lot more ducks on much fewer acres., thus reducing the need to forage, so hunters see fewer ducks flying around. . I think the duck use days per acre are like 10x or more for standing rice/corn than comparable moist soil. Some cases it’s 20x to 30x for harvested fields and hardwood bottoms.

Re: the sliding scale of the season matrix, ducks unlimited did a whole podcast on it if you have some idle time. Start at 36:45 mark.

https://youtu.be/X22XQPZbHRI?si=INH85LSh0awgOMtJ

[Rick]

Yeah certainly agree that population and PPR drought is the number one problem but am also with Darren that the big boys wouldn’t be beating the drum so hard to keep it and spending $500+/acre to plant it if there wasn’t something to it.

One of my hunters did the math in the blind this season, and $500 was one of the figures on the way to his estimated cost per acre, and his conclusion was that there couldn't be enough of it to be the great demon it's painted.

Here's a recent quick read on the topic: https://www.outdoorlife.com/hunting/hot ... igrations/

[Darren]

Will take some time to check in on what others have posted above; I enjoy the banter and intelligent, civil discussion, so carry on!

One other feedback item I'm hot on is:

"Well, Louisiana, you've lost all your habitat, why dont you work on improving it?"
My assertion is described as follows: What used to be a fairly slick amount of resistence to complete-flyway migration, that is, north all the way to south, is now retarded much like adding peanut butter to something you want to be otherwise slick. Many many birds still come, but they are drastically slowed in doing so, which given the inevitable variability in weather, creates higher likelihood of scenarios where some/many end up not fully making it like they did before. Podcasts recently spoke of seeing numbers of birds dead afield following severe weather......have to believe that's from enhanced habitat making them more likely to ride out late season cold blasts than do what comes natural........seek higher temps in lower latitudes.

So if our birds dont get to us, what matter is it as to how good our habitat is? Rebound effect is real, we're seeing it with specks, etc. to at least some degree, but it pales compared to the numbers that just dont get here to begin with.

[Ducaholic]

The sheer volume of flooded unharvested crops is not the issue, but it is the consistency of the offering that has ducks imprinting more and more on areas to our north. Would greater overall numbers help with the lack of southerly migration? I'd like to think so but until we get there we just won't know for certain. A lot can change in a 10-year span in terms of waterfowl movements and migration.

[DComeaux]

The sheer volume of flooded unharvested crops is not the issue, but it is the consistency of the offering that has ducks imprinting more and more on areas to our north. Would greater overall numbers help with the lack of southerly migration? I'd like to think so but until we get there we just won't know for certain. A lot can change in a 10-year span in terms of waterfowl movements and migration.

I agree. We just don't have the numbers, hence the issue I have with the matrix change.

I trust the science for now. What I don't like is all the extra hunting pressure we are creating with these extra opportunities l, whether it's veterans in February or BB's in October.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I just don't think "science" is making sound decisions when it comes to conservation. I watched a video where a biologist stated that the change to the matrix is due to the fact that duck numbers will never be what they once were so the change was made to continue to provide opportunity. I guess we'll have opportunity until we don't have the waterfowl to provide it.

[Ducaholic]

It will be interesting to note what if any changes are made to the Pintail limits in the years to come. I saw a lot more dead Pintail hanging on straps this year. Hunter mortality impact will get a stern test where Pintail are concerned.

[Duck Engr]

Yeah certainly agree that population and PPR drought is the number one problem but am also with Darren that the big boys wouldn’t be beating the drum so hard to keep it and spending $500+/acre to plant it if there wasn’t something to it.

One of my hunters did the math in the blind this season, and $500 was one of the figures on the way to his estimated cost per acre, and his conclusion was that there couldn't be enough of it to be the great demon it's painted.

Here's a recent quick read on the topic: https://www.outdoorlife.com/hunting/hot ... igrations/

I thought that too for a long time, but read a report recently from Bradley Cohen at Tennessee Tech saying there’s an estimated 3000 acres of flooded, unharvested corn, in west Tennessee alone. That blew my mind.

Just for fun let’s go extrapolating, which isn’t perfect and may be limited by my limited understanding of numbers, but we’ll play the averages.

Rob Heflin article from 2011 in Mississippi Sportsman stated an acre of unharvested corn can feed 25,000 mallards for one average winter day. So 3,000 times 25,000 is 75,000,000 duck use days for corn in Tennessee. Now factor in we’re racing the clock toward winter solstice as gps data shows not much meaningful migration happens afterward (did see several gps ducks move 60-80 miles on this big freeze in January, but I digress). So say, on a good year, it’s cold enough for those ducks to eat that corn for 30 days, or the month of December, which lately has been a stretch to get that cold. Just west Tennessee flooded, unharvested corn can feed 2.5 million mallards for 30 days, if they just ate corn. Mallards arent the only duck that partake in corn, but I’d say they account for the vast majority of corn consumed.

Mississippi flyway bpop of 6.5 million breeding mallards. So say that’s 3.25 million nests. Say average nest success is 20%. Success is considered hatching one egg. So, say 5 eggs per nest hatch. 10-70% duckling survival rate, so we’ll say 40%. So 3.25 mill nests x 0.2 hatch x 5 ducklings per nest x 0.4 duckling survival yields an average total of 1,300,000 young ducks coming down. There’s mortality in there somewhere, but I’ll leave it out to be conservative. So Mississippi flyway needs to feed 7.8 million mallards, more on a wet prairie year, less on a dry year. Leaves out the “non breeders”, but maybe that can wash out the mortality I didn’t account for.

So in our little off the rails math exercise, just west Tennessee flooded corn could feed about a third of our Mississippi flyway mallard fall flight.

If you made it to the end, ready, aim, fire to poke holes in my mathin’!

[Rick]

I struggled more with math than any other subject, so you'll not see arguing numbers with an engineer. That, and I try to be a Covey disciple with regard to my circles of concern and influence, so I'm disinclined to expend much energy on something so far outside that of my influence.

But y'all carry on.

[Ericdc]

Yeah certainly agree that population and PPR drought is the number one problem but am also with Darren that the big boys wouldn’t be beating the drum so hard to keep it and spending $500+/acre to plant it if there wasn’t something to it.

One of my hunters did the math in the blind this season, and $500 was one of the figures on the way to his estimated cost per acre, and his conclusion was that there couldn't be enough of it to be the great demon it's painted.

Here's a recent quick read on the topic: https://www.outdoorlife.com/hunting/hot ... igrations/

I thought that too for a long time, but read a report recently from Bradley Cohen at Tennessee Tech saying there’s an estimated 3000 acres of flooded, unharvested corn, in west Tennessee alone. That blew my mind.

Just for fun let’s go extrapolating, which isn’t perfect and may be limited by my limited understanding of numbers, but we’ll play the averages.

Rob Heflin article from 2011 in Mississippi Sportsman stated an acre of unharvested corn can feed 25,000 mallards for one average winter day. So 3,000 times 25,000 is 75,000,000 duck use days for corn in Tennessee. Now factor in we’re racing the clock toward winter solstice as gps data shows not much meaningful migration happens afterward (did see several gps ducks move 60-80 miles on this big freeze in January, but I digress). So say, on a good year, it’s cold enough for those ducks to eat that corn for 30 days, or the month of December, which lately has been a stretch to get that cold. Just west Tennessee flooded, unharvested corn can feed 2.5 million mallards for 30 days, if they just ate corn. Mallards arent the only duck that partake in corn, but I’d say they account for the vast majority of corn consumed.

Mississippi flyway bpop of 6.5 million breeding mallards. So say that’s 3.25 million nests. Say average nest success is 20%. Success is considered hatching one egg. So, say 5 eggs per nest hatch. 10-70% duckling survival rate, so we’ll say 40%. So 3.25 mill nests x 0.2 hatch x 5 ducklings per nest x 0.4 duckling survival yields an average total of 1,300,000 young ducks coming down. There’s mortality in there somewhere, but I’ll leave it out to be conservative. So Mississippi flyway needs to feed 7.8 million mallards, more on a wet prairie year, less on a dry year. Leaves out the “non breeders”, but maybe that can wash out the mortality I didn’t account for.

So in our little off the rails math exercise, just west Tennessee flooded corn could feed about a third of our Mississippi flyway mallard fall flight.

If you made it to the end, ready, aim, fire to poke holes in my mathin’!

Mallards can't survive on corn alone though. They have to start packing on protein in late winter/ early spring.

I heard that Tennessee always has a Duck energy day surplus due to corn.

They'll never eat it all because they need other things in their diet.

Do a ton of them roost or loaf in flooded corn? I'm Sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[DComeaux]

It will be interesting to note what if any changes are made to the Pintail limits in the years to come. I saw a lot more dead Pintail hanging on straps this year. Hunter mortality impact will get a stern test where Pintail are concerned.

That's a fact.

[Rick]

Mallards can't survive on corn alone though. They have to start packing on protein in late winter/ early spring.

I heard that Tennessee always has a Duck energy day surplus due to corn.

They'll never eat it all because they need other things in their diet.

Do a ton of them roost or loaf in flooded corn? I'm Sure.

Pretty sure Brad Cohen's Tennessee studies suggest much "duck day" discrepancy between corn and moist soil use in his area is based on availability, as opposed to preference which, I believe, he's spoken of as roughly equal. (Millets, for instance, having approximately the same carb value and some nutrients corn doesn't.) And that security, be it in undisturbed corn or the trashiest corner of a property is the real key to holding ducks in the area - assuming food sources within distances less taxing than their value.

[SpinnerMan]

Don't underestimate the impact of simple waste grain in the corn field. Ducks and geese feed all winter long with no problem just picking up the waste grain in the fields.

https://www.louisianasportsman.com/hunting/waterfowl-duck-hunting/ducks/ending-louisianas-duck-detour/

the Midwest’s agricultural production is increasing, primarily due to the rise in popularity of ethanol. The corn-producing acreage in the United States has increased by millions of acres over the past 20 years, a scale so large that waste grain can be found on the ground as late as spring.

“Species like snow geese are actually feeding on corn during their spring migration,” Reynolds said.

There is about 27,000,000 acres of corn planted in the Midwest. The yields are up to almost 10,000 lbs/acre with a loss of about 1%, so that 2.7 billion pounds of waste corn available to deer, ducks, geese.

At 5 ounces of corn per day, that's 8.6 billion duck use days worth of corn. Divide that by 6.5 million ducks and that is 1,300 days worth of corn laying in the fields. They aren't going to remotely run out of waste corn over the course of the winter.

You just cannot underestimate the magnitude of just waste corn from 100% normal agriculture.