Preseason '26-'27

[Darren]

Nothing exciting likely next week but maybe on the weekend or shortly thereafter. Does look cool on north end of flyway, but fronts having trouble getting all the way through/down to the coast. Still helps move the migration, however, with some bursts of north winds down the chute, come onnnn downnnn.

Plans for making a visit to the lease this weekend for some minor projects and fishing Saturday with the family down there.

[Darren]

New drought map out today and its just getting worse for much of the flyway, yowza. Some rain potential showing for next weekend though, hopefully.

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[Darren]

Spent weekend at the camp piddling with some hunting stuff and trying the fish, had some luck with each.

Trout are in fall mode, all over the interior marshes running shrimp everywhere. Caught a few friday evening in ideal conditions then battled the wind Saturday morning for a few more.

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While fishing Saturday and then again on way to and from the lease, put eyes on what we'd call A LOT of ducks in the area, primarily mixed teal. One area was largely green wings, then another mostly blue with green mixed in per my binoculars. Graham got to see them and really fired us up. Did not confirm a gray duck sighting or hear one but did see a few big birds mixed in. They show right about now/Halloween, typically. Water was high and that keeps us from holding anything on the lease while it stays up, hoping for next front to knock it back but the NE winds ripped all weekend down there. Birds were thick in the shallowest stuff around.

Swarms of teal out over the marsh were keeping us from watching our corks, but that's ok. They were like bees at times, and way more than we saw this time last year. Can only figure the drought as expedited that trip south a bit.

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for the lease trip, we set out to primarily achieve two things: new floor deck at South Roseau and get Indi some work off the dog stand out in the pond and back, both ended up successful thankfully.

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Only downside is the discovery that the recent storm surge put a whollup on a big piece of the roseau patch that South Roseau blind is located in, just wide open on our back side now.

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[DComeaux]

I don't think we have enough water to get in our marsh.

[MARSH BEAR]

Going to the marsh on Saturday, Oct 31 to prep some blinds for youth and veterans hunt on Nov. 7.
My last youth hunter cannot make it - his travel baseball team has tryouts on Nov 7 - he is not happy

[Darren]

Going to the marsh on Saturday, Oct 31 to prep some blinds for youth and veterans hunt on Nov. 7.
My last youth hunter cannot make it - his travel baseball team has tryouts on Nov 7 - he is not happy

Have a buddy up for taking his daughter (who joined us for a hunt last December), but my son is TBD and we've got a school event the evening before. In any case, we're planning to do some blind brushing around the 6th or 7th, youth hunt or not.

[Darren]

I don't think we have enough water to get in our marsh.

Crossing all the fingers I can for you to get meaningful rain down there for you and others in fresh marsh relying on it. A spot to hunt is always a phone call away if you end up in a jam.

[Darren]

Local met who famously said "dont worry about that, nothing will come of it" regarding the low that became Cat 3 Hurricane Isaias was speaking of a "very big cold front" mid next week on this morning's broadcast (WAFB Ch 9 here in BR).

Hoping his cold front prognostications are better than his storm predictions.

My own evaluation shows models only aligned on the premise of a storm system coming through in the Wed-Fri timeframe next week, lots of variation on timing specifically, and some more aggressive with temp changes than others. Regardless, for now its a whole lot of smoke around the same timeframe, definitely excited to keep watching. Beyond that also shows promise as this current stale pattern we're in appears to finally break down and more interesting weather gets going, just in time!

GFS Wednesday AM

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Euro AI Friday AM

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[Darren]

But yall already knew that, as WFF has unmatched weather forecasting capability....

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Some promising rain chances for La and Ark too coming up

[DComeaux]

The 3 models I frequent show us in the 40's in a week or two. They're beginning to align and agree.

[Darren]

The 3 models I frequent show us in the 40's in a week or two. They're beginning to align and agree.

From another met:

CHILLY PATTERN CHANGE - All signs point to the next big cold front sweeping across the South late next week. It's looking chilly at night with widespread lows in the 40s and 50s down to the Gulf Coast. An even stronger front could down some Canadian air next weekend! This looks to be the kicker to a chilly pattern change as we transition into November.

Count me in.

Tuesday-Wednesday front next week looks like a good one for migrating, top to bottom strong northerlies.

As a whole, though, the models show us at average to above average temps up and down flyway with spells of cold for coming 1-2 weeks, so not like all of the sudden polar bears in Crowley, but just weather happenings, small fronts, wind shifts, etc. is all I need. Just dont give me stale for days of same temps and wind.


As for all the hyped rain for this weekend for LA and ARK.......model runs this morning saying "aint happenin," more trick than treat for sure. Tuesday's storm front looks to be next chance for meaningful rain

[Darren]

Still on track for decent front this week, Wednesday timeframe for the south. Then looking ahead at potential for another after next weekend.

Wednesday morning, cold sets in here for Thursday AM

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Models as a whole seem to be struggling with these fronts, maybe due to El Nino patterns, etc.


Lot of people seeing plenty bluewings, wondering if these couple of fronts might run them off. Speck reports from yesterday's early season in Arkansas were largely poor.

[Darren]

Not whole lot to fire me up on the weather front for now. In mean time, getting Indi ready for the season rolls on and continues to show promise.

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Plans intact to have the full membership out on the lease Saturday morning to do a major brush haul on our four core blinds. No youth or veterans hunt planned. Hoping for water to get its act together because this morning it was 3-4 inches OVER THE DOCK, exactly like the 2024 opener weekend.

[Darren]

Well, maybe, lot of hype around this phenomenon lately.

high confidence in potential polar vortex impacts overpowering the strong El Niño pattern after the 20th of this month. We continue to see consistent signals for an extended period of negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) phases. The main thing currently fighting against this setup is the positive EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation), which is allowing milder Pacific air to influence the pattern. However, around the 20th, that is expected to trend negative as well, driven by the ongoing Stratospheric Warming Event. This would put all three major teleconnections in favorable phases for Arctic air to spill into the Midwest and Northeast. The image on the left shows a classic negative AO/NAO/EPO pattern associated with a disrupted polar vortex, while the image on the right highlights the negative NAO teleconnection. Interesting times ahead!

Just fun preseason fodder

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[DComeaux]

I'm thinking we'll have snow and more likely ice storms this winter. January will be interesting, if not before.

[Darren]

Come onnnn downnnnnnn

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[Darren]

Models trending cooler next week with more north winds in the picture, just in time, and hoping it has same effect as the one at same time last year

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