Preseason '26-'27

[Darren]

Looks like maybe just a bit (hopefully just ENOUGH) east of you to really improve the Mobile area's outlook.

This morning's cone below. Note the Google Weather Lab AI model has really had this pegged all week long around Pensacola, and the cone is only slowly, but surely, creeping east. It may well end up further east of Mobile Bay than feared, hoping so.

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Water at the camp is up and will rise steadily much of the day I'm sure with ripping NE winds before turning around to NW winds and hopefully dump out quickly tonight and over the weekend.

The GFS, Euro and the Google AI model are bullish on legit front for next weekend, something to watch in next few days to see if those outlooks firm up even more. They're oddly well aligned this morning on scale of temps and timing.

Sunday morning 10/18, below.......possibly.

GFS

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Euro

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[Ducaholic]

Should move a few down the line if it comes to pass

[Darren]

Yea pretty much exactly what you want to be seeing this time of year if you're looking for a migrator to move southward, rippin northerly winds across the breeding grounds.

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Recall last year it was fairly tame in October but we got that big front the weekend before opener and I think that was the ticket.

[Darren]

Weather channel app buying it too for next weekend


Baton Rouge forecast

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[Deltaman]

As Darren mentioned, it appears Mobile will now be on the Western edge of the storm, and all I can say is WHEW.......and Thank You Lord!!!!!
Great news regarding the impending cool front!

[Darren]

After a brief but disappointing stint for teal season, let myself calm down and got back to basics with Indy earlier this week and we’ve strung a good few days together building on dummies outfitted with each a saved blue wing from last month. Has taken well to that and moved up to larger dummy today, probably need to get one more to have multiple large dummies for continued training efforts to come.

Will try to make it every single day leading up to Nov opener. The Dokken pictured is the only dummy that remains serviceable from Harry’s training days and would be even better condition had he not gotten ahold of it one day without me around.

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[Darren]

Overnight second hand report of "5 ft over the dock" had me stirring in the wee hours this AM with concern for whether the duck boat may have started to float, and out of the slings potentially. So of course I drove down dark and early to check for myself and found it safe and sound. The reported 5 ft over dock via camera estimate was actually about 2.5 ft so no issues for us thankfully.

Water is falling hard with a stout NNW breeze blowing. Certainly feel for those impacted in the Destin area and beyond.


With setting my sights back to cold front watching, next weekend continues to gain traction and even beyond so a lot to watch! Was nice to work the dogs in the yard on my return this morning with a cool breeze at the house as well.

[Darren]

others getting onboard, still looking promising.

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[Rick]

Made a first light run to repaint my boat hide roof this morning and found myself thinking a windbreaker or hoodie would have been nice for the first time this fall.

[Darren]

While hot in afternoon, mornings should be nice all this week and next weekend looking promising still albeit not quite as impressive as initially hoped. Still should be good for moving birds with all the flyway-wide north winds.

Even saw someone in SE Mo make a mention of an apparently ahead-of-schedule migration, from his perspective at least.

[Rick]

Even saw someone in SE Mo make a mention of an apparently ahead-of-schedule migration, from his perspective at least.

Saw a "Today's View" post on the Fuge this morning from an apparently far North hunt with snow and blue-wings sharing a pic and noting surprise at how many are still there. Was a tailgate shot, so I can't confirm flooded corn...

[Darren]

Sounds like maybe some relief came from remnants of Hurricane Isaias but as a whole, pretty rough drought remaining in Arky. Current state of diesel prices isn't helping anyone in any state for those having to pump.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/2137286620191779

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[Darren]

Pretty good model alignment today on front coming in this Friday night, cool saturday, low to mid 50's across the state Sunday morning. Great, about on time, and seems like there's a fair push of early birds in Missouri so that should bode well for the lower end of flyway. On meantime, near record highs down here next few days.

Pretty much exactly what we'd want to see right now, Saturday AM; and Sunday AM similar

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Question from there is when's the next one? Hints at the week of Halloween but long way to go. Seeing some good north winds on the plains even for when fronts dont make it through to the gulf south, still can be helpful.

[Darren]

Love to see it



The Migration Express!

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[Darren]

The pro's are all over it now, but you of course heard it here first, days and days ago

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[Rick]

We'll see...

[Darren]

Would be a nice couple of days to work on blinds in the breeze!

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For the Cajun country contingent on here in SW La:

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[Darren]

New Google AI model performance with recent hurricane continues to be all the rage

Great use of AI

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[Darren]

Stout October front? Check! Forecast lows have trended cooler, and for upcoming week looking like cooler lows prevailing longer than initially thought.

Sunday AM

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[Darren]

Bleak drought monitor for MO/AR/LA getting worse

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Will take deep pockets to pump. No word lately on Bunkie field pumping but do know the most recent lease agreement with the farmer was guaranteeing water, but did have some provisions for exceptional conditions if I recall correctly.


Meanwhile, gale warnings at HBFC HQs in downtown Shell Beach, LA

GMZ534-162300-
Lake Borgne-
537 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING


TODAY
North winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots
early this afternoon, then becoming southwest late. Waves 1 foot or
less. A slight chance of showers early this morning.

TONIGHT
North winds 25 to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

SATURDAY
North winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 20 to
25 knots in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to
30 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet.

[Rick]

Would be nice to hear a speck before the weekend's out.

[DComeaux]

Would be nice to hear a speck before the weekend's out.

I agree. I was scanning the sky early this morning while Remi was out and about, when I thought I heard a faint snow/blue call. I began listening intently for the sounds of migration in the quiet stillness of the morning. Something I haven't experienced in many years. It truly saddens me. (BIG SIGH) The sound I heard was no doubt my imagination replaying a past memory.

[Rick]

Doesn't seem all that long ago when the past couple weeks would have found a pocketed speck call accompanying the dog and I on our country exercise/training rounds, just in case. Hate how fast such promise has faded..

[Darren]

Doesn't seem all that long ago when the past couple weeks would have found a pocketed speck call accompanying the dog and I on our country exercise/training rounds, just in case. Hate how fast such promise has faded..

Speck Day in Klondike sure seemed to roughly average Oct 15-20 for some time.

But sure enough, multiple local (to you) outfitters had videos this morning of nice wads of specks arriving where they should be, when they should be, lulu'ing away on a north wind across a beautiful blue sky in Cajun country on Oct 17th. If the videos would embed I'd drop them here but its FB. The sound is marvelous

[Rick]

All Call and I heard in Klondike was wind buffeting ears. And a couple of extra high and wide bunches of black-bellies were the only waterfowl to grace our passage. Still nice to break out a hoodie.