Weather and migration?

[FlintRiverFowler]

Too often I hear someone say
"Oh this cold front is gona push some birds down"
Not living in a major flyway I'm not so sure that's really truth. Ever.
What I'm trying to ask is of you more seasoned guys, does that statement ever hold any truth or is it usually speculation?
Also with the recent winter weather and snow blanketing over 50% of the country should I EXPECT to see more birds as we come in to our opener this weekend?
I've been keeping an eye on the three big ponds I've got at work that will eventually pack out with divers by the end of season and have seen quite a few early birds, but not looking like increased numbers over previous years.
So is "this front is gonna push birds in"
A.) something thats usually only correct in a flyway area
Or
B.) just something stupid people say when trying to sound knowledgable
Or
C.) cold fronts are actually a good predictor of migration no matter where you are.

[Flightstopper]

I do know mallards make up of maybe 1 to 2 birds of our season totals here but have already shot 6 with this front. Way too early in the season to even think about shooting one as well.

[Woody]

I am by no means an expert, but in my opinion it depends on the species of duck.

Teal: migrate on length of day if I am not mistaken

Woodies: Push out of Southern Michigan the first time it is in the low 40s/high 30s and no later than the first week of November.

Mallards: Around here seem to move with the weather, a push will come through with cold weather (less than 30 degrees), another when the still water ices over and another when the snow becomes to deep to find food.

Divers (excluding Eyes): seem to move with cold weather staying in front of the 30 degree temps.

Golden eye: move just in front of the ice line.

[firstflight]

I am going to go with B .

We see our best ducks last few weeks of the season.
I don't know if it pushes birds as much as there just moving around .
Now as long as ducks have food and open water they will stay till food and open water are not available.

[FlintRiverFowler]

I am by no means an expert, but in my opinion it depends on the species of duck.

Teal: migrate on length of day if I am not mistaken

Woodies: Push out of Southern Michigan the first time it is in the low 40s/high 30s and no later than the first week of November.

Mallards: Around here seem to move with the weather, a push will come through with cold weather (less than 30 degrees), another when the still water ices over and another when the snow becomes to deep to find food.

Divers (excluding Eyes): seem to move with cold weather staying in front of the 30 degree temps.

Golden eye: move just in front of the ice line.

Never heard that divers like it above freezing. It was 23 this morning. Gonna be 17 tomorrow am. We open Saturday with a bit warmer weather. They're calling for the the low to be 34.
Had a group of redheads on the pond at work yesterday that were gone this morning. While the blue bills, resident mallards, and gadwall were still hanging around and have been here a few days. Wondering if that's a bad sign for divers.

[Woody]

I am by no means an expert, but in my opinion it depends on the species of duck.

Teal: migrate on length of day if I am not mistaken

Woodies: Push out of Southern Michigan the first time it is in the low 40s/high 30s and no later than the first week of November.

Mallards: Around here seem to move with the weather, a push will come through with cold weather (less than 30 degrees), another when the still water ices over and another when the snow becomes to deep to find food.

Divers (excluding Eyes): seem to move with cold weather staying in front of the 30 degree temps.

Golden eye: move just in front of the ice line.

Never heard that divers like it above freezing. It was 23 this morning. Gonna be 17 tomorrow am. We open Saturday with a bit warmer weather. They're calling for the the low to be 34.
Had a group of redheads on the pond at work yesterday that were gone this morning. While the blue bills, resident mallards, and gadwall were still hanging around and have been here a few days. Wondering if that's a bad sign for divers.

I meant to say 20, In my short time hunting them they seem to move in front of weather and stay in front of temps that will lock up still water. Where Golden Eyes seem to move right in front of rivers freezing.

And obviously not all of them move in those pasterns, occasionally we will shoot woodies in November.

[FlintRiverFowler]

I am going to go with B .

We see our best ducks last few weeks of the season.
I don't know if it pushes birds as much as there just moving around .
Now as long as ducks have food and open water they will stay till food and open water are not available.

We see ours the first few weeks of season up through Christmas. January is pitiful. There are so few birds to begin with and then the hunting pressure is just too much with a million assholes jam packed in to all the public land.

[bill herian]

*There is nothing scientific about this. I am not knowledgeable about ducks or wildlife ecology in general. This is just how I make sense of it*

Bluewings migrate based on photo-period alone. They do this long before photo-period starts to limit the availability of food.

Most ducks migrate when photo-period gets to a point that the places they rely on for food stop being productive (plants stop growing, aquatic invertebrate activity decreases) and food becomes hard to find. Most divers and puddlers fall into this class. This why you complain about hunting stale birds for the first few weeks of season, when everything is still somewhat green, but as the reeds start to brown, the leaves fall off the trees, and theres no more bugs in the marsh, more ducks show up.

Mallards have learned how to find food outside of the traditional sources, so they as long as they have open water and fields to eat in, they can stick around. Some others will do this as well. Pintails and blacks, if so inclined.

It would be neat to go back 150 years, before industrial agriculture, and see how the migration was different.

[bill herian]

*Again, just the village idiot sounding off*

As for what makes them fly, as long as they have water, a safe place to loaf around in it, and a place to chow down, a front won't make them leave it. As long as the energy balance is positive, no need to leave. If things are getting lean, and they start getting grumbly in their tummies, a stiff north wind might be a nice time to float south where the feed is still good.

Temperature and energy demand - Inverse relationship.

Temperature and energy available - Direct relationship.

^^That's pretty much what migration is.

[firstflight]

*There is nothing scientific about this. I am not knowledgeable about ducks or wildlife ecology in general. This is just how I make sense of it*

Bluewings migrate based on photo-period alone. They do this long before photo-period starts to limit the availability of food.

Most ducks migrate when photo-period gets to a point that the places they rely on for food stop being productive (plants stop growing, aquatic invertebrate activity decreases) and food becomes hard to find. Most divers and puddlers fall into this class. This why you complain about hunting stale birds for the first few weeks of season, when everything is still somewhat green, but as the reeds start to brown, the leaves fall off the trees, and theres no more bugs in the marsh, more ducks show up.

Mallards have learned how to find food outside of the traditional sources, so they as long as they have open water and fields to eat in, they can stick around. Some others will do this as well. Pintails and blacks, if so inclined.

It would be neat to go back 150 years, before industrial agriculture, and see how the migration was different.

Blue wings are the sissy's of ducks.

[bill herian]

That could very well be, but don't most of them fly right on out of North America? If I had that kind of trip to make, I'd give myself a head start too.

Or it could be that they lose a key component of their diet earlier than other ducks. I don't know what bluewing teal eat, but maybe their favorite snacks start to disappear right away in mid September.

My only grudge with them is they all fly down to make Mr. Hall look like a hero before I can get a crack.

[Rick]

My only grudge with them is they all fly down to make Mr. Hall look like a hero before I can get a crack.

Not the past two Septembers. Folks were still shooting them as a primary in the bag duck in Canada and ND in early November last Fall, and the great majority of what we were killing at the end of this September were males. This layman's theory is that Late Springs led to late hatches, and the hens with young not ready to go were held up until the photoperiod urge to go had passed.

[NuffDaddy]

A good N blow with cold weather will usually bring new birds down. Mainly mallards. But it has to be at the right time of the year though. I'm far from a seasoned waterfowler, but it seems like the first cold front with a N wind after oct 25ish brings the first push of mallards. Then they just trickle through with every cold front until the food is buried with snow or the water is all locked up.

[The Duck Hammer]

I can honestly say I have no fucking idea how it works. Three years ago we had fresh birds every week of the season. This year and last have been a crapshoot to see a single bird.

[NuffDaddy]

I can honestly say I have no fucking idea how it works. Three years ago we had fresh birds every week of the season. This year and last have been a crapshoot to see a single bird.

This year has been fucked up for the area i hunt. Mallards were almost non existent. I don't know if it was because their northern migration this past spring was held off so late because of the ice or what. In the first 2 weeks of the season we killed 2 mallard hens total. And didn't see many more.

[The Duck Hammer]

I can honestly say I have no fucking idea how it works. Three years ago we had fresh birds every week of the season. This year and last have been a crapshoot to see a single bird.

This year has been fucked up for the area i hunt. Mallards were almost non existent. I don't know if it was because their northern migration this past spring was held off so late because of the ice or what. In the first 2 weeks of the season we killed 2 mallard hens total. And didn't see many more.

Brother told me that they got a two man limit of teal Sunday morning in short order. First sign of teal they've had and they used to be a main staple from day one. Based on that I assume we are a little under a month behind.

[NuffDaddy]

I can honestly say I have no fucking idea how it works. Three years ago we had fresh birds every week of the season. This year and last have been a crapshoot to see a single bird.

This year has been fucked up for the area i hunt. Mallards were almost non existent. I don't know if it was because their northern migration this past spring was held off so late because of the ice or what. In the first 2 weeks of the season we killed 2 mallard hens total. And didn't see many more.

Brother told me that they got a two man limit of teal Sunday morning in short order. First sign of teal they've had and they used to be a main staple from day one. Based on that I assume we are a little under a month behind.

Mallards kinda showed up last week. But not like there should be. Now our big water is icing up, so we are probably going to get the flyover if there are any big flights left

[Woody]

I can honestly say I have no fucking idea how it works. Three years ago we had fresh birds every week of the season. This year and last have been a crapshoot to see a single bird.

This year has been fucked up for the area i hunt. Mallards were almost non existent. I don't know if it was because their northern migration this past spring was held off so late because of the ice or what. In the first 2 weeks of the season we killed 2 mallard hens total. And didn't see many more.

Brother told me that they got a two man limit of teal Sunday morning in short order. First sign of teal they've had and they used to be a main staple from day one. Based on that I assume we are a little under a month behind.

Mallards kinda showed up last week. But not like there should be. Now our big water is icing up, so we are probably going to get the flyover if there are any big flights left

If the bigger water can hold out for 5 more days its all going to melt and the ducks will stay right here for the rest of the season... it will be the perfect storm.

[firstflight]

A good N blow with cold weather will usually bring new birds down. Mainly mallards. But it has to be at the right time of the year though. I'm far from a seasoned waterfowler, but it seems like the first cold front with a N wind after oct 25ish brings the first push of mallards. Then they just trickle through with every cold front until the food is buried with snow or the water is all locked up.

I think a lot of that is just the North wind blowing up the big lakes. When we have a big North wind inland is great close to the lakes.

Just like a few years ago when Sandy or Irene hit up the east coast we shot all kinds of odd ball ducks And geese that aren't here that often.

[NuffDaddy]

I can honestly say I have no fucking idea how it works. Three years ago we had fresh birds every week of the season. This year and last have been a crapshoot to see a single bird.

This year has been fucked up for the area i hunt. Mallards were almost non existent. I don't know if it was because their northern migration this past spring was held off so late because of the ice or what. In the first 2 weeks of the season we killed 2 mallard hens total. And didn't see many more.

Brother told me that they got a two man limit of teal Sunday morning in short order. First sign of teal they've had and they used to be a main staple from day one. Based on that I assume we are a little under a month behind.

Mallards kinda showed up last week. But not like there should be. Now our big water is icing up, so we are probably going to get the flyover if there are any big flights left

If the bigger water can hold out for 5 more days its all going to melt and the ducks will stay right here for the rest of the season... it will be the perfect storm.

That's the hope. I've been hearing from some people 1-3" of ice up to a mile from shore as of today. Certain parts should hold off till the weekend, and that's where I'll be. Hopefully the birds are there too.

[NuffDaddy]

A good N blow with cold weather will usually bring new birds down. Mainly mallards. But it has to be at the right time of the year though. I'm far from a seasoned waterfowler, but it seems like the first cold front with a N wind after oct 25ish brings the first push of mallards. Then they just trickle through with every cold front until the food is buried with snow or the water is all locked up.

I think a lot of that is just the North wind blowing up the big lakes. When we have a big North wind inland is great close to the lakes.

Just like a few years ago when Sandy or Irene hit up the east coast we shot all kinds of odd ball ducks And geese that aren't here that often.

I hunt the saginaw bay off Lake Huron. Local birds have much more pale orange feet and are a lot smaller. Flight birds have a lot more fat and bright red feet. And they are typically in bigger flocks. Those are the birds we see with the N wind cold fronts.

[Woody]

That's the hope. I've been hearing from some people 1-3" of ice up to a mile from shore as of today. Certain parts should hold off till the weekend, and that's where I'll be. Hopefully the birds are there too.

That is surprising, there are still ponds being held open by the wind around here.

[NuffDaddy]

That's the hope. I've been hearing from some people 1-3" of ice up to a mile from shore as of today. Certain parts should hold off till the weekend, and that's where I'll be. Hopefully the birds are there too.

That is surprising, there are still ponds being held open by the wind around here.

I hunted yesterday and didn't break ice in the 1/4 mile long ditch with no flow. There was no ice on the bay anywhere. Had some form for about an hour out there but it melted right back off. Water temps were hanging in 32.0-32.5* range for the past week. So with the offshore wind and cold last night, I'm sure it was building quick.
The east side of the bay im sure is still open with the 30+ W winds today.

[Woody]

That's the hope. I've been hearing from some people 1-3" of ice up to a mile from shore as of today. Certain parts should hold off till the weekend, and that's where I'll be. Hopefully the birds are there too.

That is surprising, there are still ponds being held open by the wind around here.

I hunted yesterday and didn't break ice in the 1/4 mile long ditch with no flow. There was no ice on the bay anywhere. Had some form for about an hour out there but it melted right back off. Water temps were hanging in 32.0-32.5* range for the past week. So with the offshore wind and cold last night, I'm sure it was building quick.
The east side of the bay im sure is still open with the 30+ W winds today.

I am also surprised the water temps are that low already, but the bay isn't very deep is it?

[NuffDaddy]

That's the hope. I've been hearing from some people 1-3" of ice up to a mile from shore as of today. Certain parts should hold off till the weekend, and that's where I'll be. Hopefully the birds are there too.

That is surprising, there are still ponds being held open by the wind around here.

I hunted yesterday and didn't break ice in the 1/4 mile long ditch with no flow. There was no ice on the bay anywhere. Had some form for about an hour out there but it melted right back off. Water temps were hanging in 32.0-32.5* range for the past week. So with the offshore wind and cold last night, I'm sure it was building quick.
The east side of the bay im sure is still open with the 30+ W winds today.

I am also surprised the water temps are that low already, but the bay isn't very deep is it?

25' is pretty much the deepest point. Shorelines stay 2-3' for a mile out sometimes more in some places. The average depth is probably about 15'.

[blockmaker]

Too often I hear someone say
"Oh this cold front is gona push some birds down"
Not living in a major flyway I'm not so sure that's really truth. Ever.
What I'm trying to ask is of you more seasoned guys, does that statement ever hold any truth or is it usually speculation?
Also with the recent winter weather and snow blanketing over 50% of the country should I EXPECT to see more birds as we come in to our opener this weekend?
I've been keeping an eye on the three big ponds I've got at work that will eventually pack out with divers by the end of season and have seen quite a few early birds, but not looking like increased numbers over previous years.
So is "this front is gonna push birds in"
A.) something thats usually only correct in a flyway area
Or
B.) just something stupid people say when trying to sound knowledgable
Or
C.) cold fronts are actually a good predictor of migration no matter where you are.

No expert but I've been hunting for over 45 years in a major flyway. 20 years ago bird migration was predictable with cold fronts being a major factor. I am of the school that believes snow cover is more important for large mass migrations. On an average year we see birds the second week of October no matter the weather. This year we had big pushes the last week of October. This last front has pushed a lot of our grey ducks out and replaced them with mallards, but we usually don't get a big push of mallards until mid to late December. So after the 1st of the year we pray for warm south winds that bring birds back to us.
Some birds will migrate at a certain time of the year no matter the weather. Where you are plays a big role also as ducks will imprint to an area and come back year after year. They will also follow water. West of me is covered in ducks but they have had a lot more rain than we have. But if we get a big rain with a good northwest wind those same ducks will show up here. A lot of our ducks went straight through to Arkansas because of this.

[Rick]

A friend's Cajun grandfather who lived his life in marshes of SW Louisiana told him, "I been studyin' dem ducks for sixty-some years, an' I finally figured out, I ain' gonna figure 'em out."

I'm way ahead of that curve. Didn't take me nearly that long to learn that the ducks are going to do whatever they do.

[Bad17]

A friend's Cajun grandfather who lived his life in marshes of SW Louisiana told him, "I been studyin' dem ducks for sixty-some years, an' I finally figured out, I ain' gonna figure 'em out."

I'm way ahead of that curve. Didn't take me nearly that long to learn that the ducks are going to do whatever they do.

AMEN. They gonna show up when they want leave when they want land in the decoys when the want. Just hope you are ready when they come in.

[FlintRiverFowler]

A friend's Cajun grandfather who lived his life in marshes of SW Louisiana told him, "I been studyin' dem ducks for sixty-some years, an' I finally figured out, I ain' gonna figure 'em out."

I'm way ahead of that curve. Didn't take me nearly that long to learn that the ducks are going to do whatever they do.

AMEN. They gonna show up when they want leave when they want land in the decoys when the want. Just hope you are ready when they come in.

This is pretty much the way I feel about it. But so many people put so much emphasis on weather watching, logging hunts. And scouting. Makes me feel like there has to be some kind of voodoo perfect storm type situation for ducks. Even in a duck desert like Georgia.

[Bad17]

Well so far from all of my logs all I can see is clusters of good ducks. I'm sure if I was a math genius I could figure out the formula and know where and when lol.