Deltas Spring Production Forecast

[DComeaux]

Spring Wetlands Outlook: Below-Average Conditions for Nesting Ducks

Kyle Wintersteen, Managing Editor on 03/08/2016

Spring Wetlands Outlook: Below-Average Conditions for Nesting Ducks
A variety of variables affect duck production, but one key requirement of breeding waterfowl can hugely impact the size of the fall flight: water. If an ample snowpack and timely rains saturate the prairie pothole region — most importantly generating temporary and seasonal wetlands — then duck production is strong. This scenario has annually played out for the majority of the past two decades. Unfortunately, the prairie is drier this March than it has been for some time.

“The prairies entered winter dry and ended winter dry,” said Matt Chouinard, waterfowl programs manager for Delta Waterfowl. “That’s pretty true of the entire PPR, though there are a few wet spots. Most of prairie Canada and certainly the eastern Dakotas had little snowfall.”

With just weeks left before the breeding season begins, here are the current regional conditions across the most critical duck-production areas.

Canadian Prairie Pothole Region
Precipitation maps reveal that a large swath of prairie Canada — a crucial band of wetlands along the southern halves of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba — received 40 to 50 percent less precipitation than normal this winter. Additionally, unseasonable warmth is evaporating what little snow remains, ensuring the moisture won’t be present when ducks begin nesting in late April and early May.

“The prairie is essentially snowless in southwest Manitoba and everywhere south of Calgary and Regina,” said Jim Fisher, director of conservation policy for Delta Waterfowl. “Calgary’s forecast is 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) for the next several days, while the remainder of the prairie is above freezing or warmer. That’s very unusual. This has been the warmest, driest winter of the past 20 years, so there’s reason to be concerned about the available wetlands for nesting ducks. There are still about two months to turn things around, but the Canadian prairie desperately needs moisture.”

The parklands regions, which lies just north of the prairie, is in somewhat better shape. Parkland habitat is also less susceptible to fluctuations in precipitation, as it consists largely of permanent and semi-permanent wetlands.

“There’s a reasonable amount of snow north of the line from Minnedosa, Manitoba, west to Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, and on to Edmonton, Alberta,” Fisher said. “It’s still below average — the snow around Saskatoon is so low you can see the tops of the stubble — but the parklands had a wet enough fall that most ponds should have water.”

Eastern Dakotas
The early outlook for all-important eastern North and South Dakota — home to some of the PPR’s highest densities of nesting ducks — is poor.

“The Dakotas are experiencing mild temperatures and they’re way below average in terms of moisture,” Chouinard said. “Every bit of snow here in Bismarck has melted, and a lot of Canada geese are already headed north. It’s not all doom and gloom, as plenty of the semi-permanent wetlands are holding water, but the temporary and seasonal wetlands that really boost duck production aren’t appearing on the landscape. Even the ponds that are wet contain significantly less water.”

What happens if the dry conditions continue?

“We’ll lose the duck-production benefits of temporary and seasonal wetlands,” Chouinard said. “Many ducks will opt to fly over the prairie and nest in the parklands, where production tends to decrease, and in the boreal forest, where they’re much less productive.”

Conversely, history has demonstrated that there’s still time to improve the prairie’s fortunes. In early March 2015, for instance, conditions were nearly as dry.

“Everyone was concerned, but then consistent showers fell over a period of days in late April and early May,” Chouinard said. “When it rains that hard, the moisture runs off the top layer of soil and enters the surrounding wetlands. Last year it allowed ducks to have what’s believed to be average production. There’s no doubt we need significant moisture to improve the outlook for this spring, but it could happen.”

However, if Mother Nature stays the course, 2016 could be the worst year for duck production in recent memory.

“We’ve had a good run of abundant moisture since 1994, but at some point a drought is inevitable,” Fisher said. “This could well be it.”

[Rick]

Saw that a few days ago but didn't want to be the grinch.

[DComeaux]

Well, according to DU, we've had record breaking numbers the last couple of years that didn't translate into much for most. Maybe this stuff works backwards??

[DComeaux]

I've kinda become numb to those reports and other what I'd call used to be signs of things to come, and tend to go with Ricks philosophy of it will be what it will be. I wish it weren't that way now, and I must admit that I still poke into that area, but it gets frustrating. The boy that cried wolf comes to mind.

[aunt betty]

Uh...we're counting on a branch of the gubment (the one that don't work) to supply it's people (us) with accurate and timely information about them there ducks.

You want to actually believe anything they say about anything? Yeah it's all true and they aint a gunna be no ducks this fall. You need to sell me that shotgun you got right there. Give ya $20 cuz yuh know they aint a gunna be no ducks according to the gubment.

[Bud]

But we all must find out for our own selves, right? Maybe conditions will change and the decoys will move with ease. Maybe bluebird hunting days will be rainy or windy, spattered with sunny days enough to mix things up. Don't know how good a day we can have with a bad forecast til we get out there.

[Rick]

Probably unfortunate that the Fall population estimate is so often referred to as the "Fall flight forecast," as there's no guarantee of one translating to the other. Looking back over the years, I do see our success trending pretty well with those estimates, but certainly not tracking them. We've had strong hunting in weak population years and vice versa. Sometimes the explanation seems as clear as massive flooding or drought to our north. Sometimes more local influences have skewed our "luck". Sometimes it's a head scratcher.

Having done less goose hunting this year than at any time since the mid '70s has, however, given me a solid handle on one thing: whether the birds show that day or not, not being out there to find out sucks.

[Darren]

I'd tend to agree, we've had some pretty poor seasons on much-heralded forecasts. Conversely we've also had some bang-up seasons when numbers of our particularly common species such as GW teal and gadwall were down. Like I've seen and heard Rick say time and again.......'It'll be what it'll be".....so lets get prepared regardless. One thing is certain is that it shouldn't be a "late" spring with overabundance of snowfall so hopefully some rains show up in those critical areas

[Rick]

Was my, perhaps erroneous, impression that some of it saw recent snows.

[Darren]

yea I think Midwest got some this week or last, maybe some got up to the dakotas

[Rick]

...just enough and a chance to watch them do it right is good enough for me

There it is. Would rather fool a pair than pass shoot all I could carry.

[DComeaux]

us_snowdepth_i1.png

[Darren]

While we're talking weather and not the best of news for duck hunters in S. La

http://www.nola.com/environment/index.s ... iver_index


You and Rick often talk about Robins showing, and I'd agree I'm seeing far fewer of them just in the last 15 years or so that I've made note of their presence/timing:

Wren and robin populations are decreasing in areas with hotter and drier summers and increasing in areas where winter temperatures are becoming milder. The number of wrens in Spain, for example, is in decline. Likewise, fewer robins are wintering in Louisiana and Mississippi, but more are showing up in the Dakotas. Previous research shows that winter in places such as Illinois are now so mild that many robins don't bother to fly south.

[SpinnerMan]

One thing I noticed about Robins even when I was a kid. Places with underground steam pipes that keep the ground from freezing, such as is common in many industrial businesses will hold large numbers of robins all winter long. I know this happens where I work, but I'm not sure where. As soon as we get the slightest warming, robins will show up mid winter. I doubt they flew from 100's of miles south and surely just from wherever on site they are enjoying the warm steam lines that run all over the place.

[aunt betty]

I'd say that waterfowl migrations are getting shorter in distance and for shorter periods of time from what I've been seeing.
Whoever speculated that Illinois is "the new south" for certain species of birds is absolutely right.
Canada geese stop in central Illinois and winter there now.
They used to go much much further.

[Rick]

...and now almost complete absence of wigeon?

Seems odd that wigeon should be a bellwether bird, but they were thick well into the '90s and all but quit coming to our area before the mallards slacked off appreciably.

Canada geese stop in central Illinois and winter there now.
They used to go much much further.

If you look at Southwest Louisiana ag land and fresh marsh camp photos from the mid 20th century back, the geese in them were all big Canadas. The blues/snows stayed deep in the coastal marsh and specks hadn't showed here yet. Things have been changing for a while.

[DComeaux]

I'm not good with change.

[Darren]

...and now almost complete absence of wigeon?

Seems odd that wigeon should be a bellwether bird, but they were thick well into the '90s and all but quit coming to our area before the mallards slacked off appreciably.

Canada geese stop in central Illinois and winter there now.
They used to go much much further.

If you look at Southwest Louisiana ag land and fresh marsh camp photos from the mid 20th century back, the geese in them were all big Canadas. The blues/snows stayed deep in the coastal marsh and specks hadn't showed here yet. Things have been changing for a while.

Rick,

I've seen you allude to this before: So the light geese would just largely overfly the ag lands and primarily winter in the marshes of our coast? What's the thought on where the specks were during this period? They stayed further north or had a shift from elsewhere east/west? other?

[Rick]

It's my understanding that the blues wintered from what the '60s reference I had as a teen referred to as the "Vermilion marshes" eastward to the Mississippi delta and the snows largely along the Texas coast without much mixing, and that they made their southward migration in about three hops: staging somewhere in Canada below their breeding grounds, then to Swan Lake and from there to the Gulf coast. Though they nested in the same areas, they did their pairing in February, so there wasn't much interbreeding between the two color phases or subsequent mixing seen on their wintering grounds. That apparently didn't come until they discovered rice and started intermingling there in winter.

When I moved here in '83, they were already thick in the ag lands, but you would still see six or eight blues for every snow, and white bellied blues were such rarities that I remember being excited about killing the then limit of five light geese all of which were blues with white bellies. Also remember two Canadian biologists camping in our guide shack to collect hearts for DNA study of that then new phenomenon and a friend with permits to raise geese saying, "I don't know what it cost to send those guys down here, but if they would have put a dime in the phone, I could have told them."

As for the specks, Cornell University's Macaulay Library has a speck recording made in Texas in 1956, and that's long been my guess as to where they came from. Have also seen once rare to absent Ross geese, Richardson's Canadas and black-bellied tree ducks trend here from the west during my time in SWLA. (And, in the case of the little Canadas, all but disappear again.)

[Darren]

Very interesting; I could certainly figure there were larger numbers of snows and/or blues on my end of the state considering all of the historical land references in areas I frequent, despite there now being rarely any geese around those areas. Venice remains the exception as it still sees routine wintering numbers of mixed geese, just likely not in numbers of old, and we catch the odd flock or two passing through likely headed that way.

Sounds like we both arrived to Louisiana the same year, though I came via hospital in Lafayette as a fresh hatchling.

[aunt betty]

Things change and then things change.
Am in the process of changing myself as far as where I go to hunt is concerned.
Part of the game is exploring and finding new locations.

[Rick]

Am in the process of changing myself as far as where I go to hunt is concerned.
Part of the game is exploring and finding new locations.

Has the Arky commission decided give you and other OOSers the boot from WMAs? Hadn't seen word on that yet but understand Fed frameworks are coming earlier this year and assume states won't be far behind.

Here, the annual scramble for something better has been underway since last miserable season, as folks are bailing from the spots that disappointed them in favor of ever more expensive ones that disappointed someone else.

Definitely counting my blessings with regard to having a relatively solid blind. Indeed, it appears I've the option of moving to either of two locations I know see much more traffic (one of which gets my vote for best in our marsh) without bumping anyone. But while the temptation is strong, I expect to stay put for the same reasons I chose the mudhole when we took over the marsh: no one else is apt to do the what it takes to make it productive, and I'm not the asshole who claimed one of the best spots for himself. Besides which, I've now considerable sweat equity and history there.

My change will come in the form of trying to better our chances where we are.

[aunt betty]

Am in the process of changing myself as far as where I go to hunt is concerned.
Part of the game is exploring and finding new locations.

Has the Arky commission decided give you and other OOSers the boot from WMAs? Hadn't seen word on that yet but understand Fed frameworks are coming earlier this year and assume states won't be far behind.

Here, the annual scramble for something better has been underway since last miserable season, as folks are bailing from the spots that disappointed them in favor of ever more expensive ones that disappointed someone else.

Definitely counting my blessings with regard to having a relatively solid blind. Indeed, it appears I've the option of moving to either of two locations I know see much more traffic (one of which gets my vote for best in our marsh) without bumping anyone. But while the temptation is strong, I expect to stay put for the same reasons I chose the mudhole when we took over the marsh: no one else is apt to do the what it takes to make it productive, and I'm not the asshole who claimed one of the best spots for himself. Besides which, I've now considerable sweat equity and history there.

My change will come in the form of trying to better our chances where we are.

Well...arkansas gave me five years worth of practice on ducks that were shot at a lot already.
I can go up here and slam ducks with crowds around me now so I'll probably be sticking closer to home.

If I do head to Missouri or Arkansas it'll be for days, not weeks and if they want to keep the current price rapage...eff em. Not paying guide rates to hunt on public duhhhh.

My prediction is that Arkansas will pass the ooser restrictions and within a year will raise the price of Arkansas resident license while at the same time making it where the locals have to buy turkey and deer permits separate. They gotta get that money somewhere you know? Locals will bitch and demand changes and then wham...the same guys who are whining now will get regulated out of the WMA's they are crybabying about.

It's all none of my business but I did enjoy going there a lot. Would be nice if they'd just leave it alone. My two ducks worth.
Sorry.

My popularity in arkansas just went down but so? The truth hurts? No way. lol