Preseason 2024-2025

[Darren]

All's well at my house and, from what I can tell, at the Shell Beach camp. Johnny lost power but otherwise only minor items. Hoping his power is restored soon since it looked like others in the vicinity were still online. New Orleans really got the brunt of this storm, Baton Rouge/westward lucked out.

I'm at the office this morning hoping water recedes below our dock so we can head down tomorrow and just see what the conditions allow for the weekend, be it hunting/blind install, neither or both.

[jrock75]

Glad to hear things are looking ok.

[Darren]

Glad to hear things are looking ok.

Water's on a steady fall, now nearing a normal high tide level.

[Darren]

Hurricane Francine peaked in the area of the camp at just under 50 mph gusts, and given its approach from our SW instead of SE, only resulted in a fairly modest storm surge, about 2-2.5 ft above normal tides.

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My son and I are headed down a little later this morning and will go out for some lease recon this afternoon, possibly doing a little floor modification/upgrade on one blind if water is down enough. I think one way or another we'll try the teal in the morning for the opener, but to say our expectations are tempered would be an understatement. But I guess you never know, and we've killed them there before so only one way to find out, throw some decoys and kick on a spinner or two.

[Deltaman]

Rick and Darren, glad to hear that you did not have any significant damage from Francine. Has anybody gotten a report from Dave?

[jrock75]

only resulted in a fairly modest storm surge, about 2-2.5 ft above normal tides.

Amazing that you only ran 2-2.5' high. The gauge closest to our farm 200+ miles west of you was running 2.5' high on Wednesday. The way that wind moves the water in these storms is pretty amazing. During Beryl our farm tide gauge only ran 3' high at the max when my bay house saw water 8'+ high and both were on east side of storm and only 15 miles apart.

[Darren]

With teal season behind us, still watching tropics but also frontal systems. Looking like potential is there for a decent front a week from now, and that also may help keep any tropical stuff of the same timeframe from wandering north.

Bill Byers HC near Hunter, AR reporting first specks showing around them yesterday. Don't know of any seen down this way yet, but maybe Rick's network saw or heard a few.

[Rick]

Bill Byers HC near Hunter, AR reporting first specks showing around them yesterday. Don't know of any seen down this way yet, but maybe Rick's network saw or heard a few.

Thought I might have heard one Sunday, but saw no more likely source than blackbirds. Was a time, though, when the first very few might well show the last week of teal. Haven't heard word of such yet.

Have both minor and major anchorage work to do on the blind I've hunted most, so Call and I were in the marsh for measurements and checked north east blind to insure decoys had been picked up while out there. Did not see a teal, which seemed odd.

[DComeaux]

Bill Byers HC near Hunter, AR reporting first specks showing around them yesterday. Don't know of any seen down this way yet, but maybe Rick's network saw or heard a few.

I saw a video today claiming to be in Klondike that had speckle bellies in it. They claimed it was the most seen this early. It popped up in my feed on FB today and I can't find it now.

[Ducaholic]

With teal season behind us, still watching tropics but also frontal systems. Looking like potential is there for a decent front a week from now, and that also may help keep any tropical stuff of the same timeframe from wandering north.

Bill Byers HC near Hunter, AR reporting first specks showing around them yesterday. Don't know of any seen down this way yet, but maybe Rick's network saw or heard a few.

The guys at Dave's Bayou reported flocks moving south with last week's front

[Darren]

Good deal ! Would be about right on timing. A front or two still showing promise for next week.

[Darren]

Louisiana sends good thoughts to those in Florida dealing with now their third storm of the season.

Thankfully over this way, enjoying current cool front and watching what looks to be a stout one next Tuesday-Wed.

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Multiple models suggesting another on its heels the following weekend.

[Deltaman]

C'MON Ice Cream!!!!!!!! This little puff of North wind this week was nice, and to hear another is on it's heals, capital H to the yes!!!!!

[Darren]

Good news in the time elapsed, is the front shown above is indeed coming to fruition with at least as much vigor as promised, if not more, for the south/SE.

Downside, not seeing much to get particularly excited about in weeks to follow for now, plenty lingering warmth in the heart of the country for coming week or two.

[Ducaholic]

I'd love to see Wednesday's weather on opening day

[DComeaux]

We'll have sneaux in early November.

[Darren]

Heralded front made it to Shell Beach camp! How glorious it would have been to be out there this morning, gale warnings and all!

59 degree air temp + a 30 kt north wind on the water down there, you better be bundled (for La standards, that is).

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[Darren]

As we're approaching the end of October, it seems overall that temps have been above (to well above) average for most of the Miss. flyway, though has been pleasantly cool down here on the lower end of it, our mornings at least. Migration reports also seem to be pointing toward a currently delayed migration.

My log notes from 2015 were much the same, with our opening day (early, Nov 7!!) weather condition noted to be "worse than teal season" as far as level of UN-comfortability, and on Day 2 our water was flood-high in the marsh just like September teal season due to strong east winds.....both days, though, were jam up hunts. Water level was said to be at the top of our dock when we left the camp that morning. Whether that kind of success despite the warmth plays out again remains to be seen, but I'd much prefer a decent front or three before the Nov 9 opener. There's hints of one that week, but we'll see.

In the mean time, the GFS keeps trying to sell us on a pretty stout storm in the southeastern GOM next weekend headed to south Florida, though its peers aren't buying it.

[Duck Engr]

Can confirm the above average temps and delayed migration. On the way back from South Dakota as I type. For the 4 full days we hunted, highs range from 78(!) the first 2 days to 67 day 3 and 62 day 4. Talked to a local fella and he said they were still hunting the same ducks and geese they’d had since their third week of September opener. However, day 3 for us, there was a front with strong NW winds that blew through, taking most of the divers with it. What very few mallards we saw were only feeding for 30 minutes in the evening.

[Duck Engr]

This map from Osborne lab seems to back the delayed migration idea as well.

[Darren]

Watching three signs of promise:

Currently a cool front dipping down but fizzling just above Arky, some good north winds showing to push em along though

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Mid next week - decent cool front fizzling out about that same latitude

Following week - Pretty stout front still showing for mid to late week of Nov 4, just ahead of our opener.
Good north winds down the flyway

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Cooler than avg temps flyway wide leading into our opener weekend, can't kick about that

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Will be interesting to keep watching, hoping it shakes out; only downside is really nothing in the way of rain showing up long term.



And just as critically, nothing cookin' in the tropics. Keep those fingers and toes crossed !

[DComeaux]

That would be spectacular.

[Darren]

Three days closer of certainty on next week's weather:

Exact timing keeps fluctuating but good bit of consistency on at least 2 frontal systems for the week, into the weekend. Youth hunt Saturday still up in air, a bit concerned for gnat potential that would spoil it entirely for my crew.

Also pretty good confidence in halfway decent front later this week that will fizzle/stall in mid-Arkansas which should still be of use to all on the flyway. Even seeing some rain showing up for this Thurs-Fri and mid-next week.

[Rick]

Supposed to be setting our pump up today, and a corollary of Murphy's Law suggests that could bring heavy rains.

[Darren]

Winter outlook, simply for fun prognostication purposes:

Temp anomalies for Dec, Jan, Feb; our luck it'll mostly be Feb.

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[DComeaux]

I would prefer to have ducks than cold weather.

[Darren]

I would prefer to have ducks than cold weather.

For our Bunkie game last year, there weren't ducks until there was cold weather. Not always like that, but was last season. MLK morning hunt, droves coming in from the north on that freeze up that shut down the interstates. That said, we've slayed grays time and time again in short sleeves in our marsh.

[Ducaholic]

Bring it on. We need a couple of early frost before December if we are to assure a good push for most of us. And then one more during the split for good measure. As always, the best areas will hold birds either way.

[Darren]

In a cruel twist of what's possibly to come on the weather front, models lost confidence in the potent front for next week actually making it through to us down here, and even are gaining some traction on depicting a low pressure system in the gulf in same timeframe.

So that's ideal.









Not.



In any case, have been getting some encouraging reports of birds in the various marshes along our coast, though nothing from my particular neck of it just yet. Lease partner mentioned taking a ride tomorrow to touch up some brushing so might get something from him then.

[Ducaholic]

It's awful dry in both the Central and Miss. flyways. I think that's a saving grace at the moment. I'd imagine LDWF will begin their flight survey next week. We will know more once the numbers are tabulated.