Preseason '25-'26

[Rick]

Hate seeing them become regular season staples, in large part due to it's likely effect on their numbers and, consequently, September season. The one time head fed down here, Dave Hall, once called it "a taste of teal" and speculated that it helped take some of the edge off the Cajuns' hunger for duck. Know it helps this old hillbilly get through...

[DComeaux]

I was curious about the start of teal season so did a little research. I didn't hunt the teal seasons in my early years in the marsh and only did so when I got a blind in the AG region about 14 years ago. Blake and I will go out to the blind at LST the weekend before the season opens to see what moves. We may pass on this season. I agree with Rick, if we continue to see low BWT numbers and continue to hold more during the main season we may see an end to this "special season".

"The special teal season in Louisiana began as an experimental season in 1965-67. It became an option for other states in 1969"

Short news release from the Department of the interior dated January 15,1965
https://www.fws.gov/sites/default/files/documents/historic-news-releases/1965/19650115.PDF

Early findings of teal season dated October 22,1965
https://www.fws.gov/sites/default/files/documents/historic-news-releases/1965/19651022.PDF

Complete report with data on the number of permits sold, sex and age numbers, etc.
https://ia902909.us.archive.org/1/items/specialscientif95unit/specialscientif95unit_bw.pdf

[Rick]

Would have been fun to have some of that information in hand when I interviewed Dennis Anderson about his series on Louisiana outlawing in the Minneapolis-St. Paul paper. Though, to his credit, he did tell me a disappointing result of the series was all the folks coming forward with information on how bad it was in his own state.

[Darren]

Hate seeing them become regular season staples..

This particular area, around Lake Lery, is long known for hunters taking predominantly blue wings with a smattering of green throughout the big duck season for as far back as I can remember. So given the weather happenings of how fall 2024 shook out, was no surprise they were holding so many in that area for regular season opener, as it was likely no more than average for the area. It just so happened that Mike's ground was holding more than his fair share at the time.

It was also amplified by the tides being so crazy high with a storm offshore in the gulf that the birds congregated in the shallowest stuff available, taking the bulk of the marsh out of play for the little birds unable to find food in the floods. I'll have binoculars in hand for some porch sitting this weekend at the camp as that's been some of my first sightings in recent years likely due to the really teal-friendly habitat that's been built via marsh restorations nearby along the Lake Borgne shoreline.

[DComeaux]

An hour before dawn. "Now for the first time, Dennis Anderson--outdoors editor for the St. Paul Pioneer Press--brings the best of his columns together in An Hour Before Dawn: Stories of the Outdoors. He features the series "Empty Skies: Ducks in Crisis," for which he was honored as a Pulitzer Prize finalist. The columns deal with controversial duck hunting laws along major migration routes all the way from Mexico to Louisiana, to the Upper Midwest and Canada. With a keen investigative eye, Anderson documents the criminal overbagging of ducks in these areas and follows developments in the decline of the waterfowl population".

I remember this time well, the hatred those to our north had for us after this came out.

[Darren]

Note, the signal for next week's front continues to gain traction and support across multiple models. Could be a great week and into Labor Day wknd.

[DComeaux]

Note, the signal for next week's front continues to gain traction and support across multiple models. Could be a great week and into Labor Day wknd.

I noticed that. Several models are beginning to agree.

[Ducaholic]

Note, the signal for next week's front continues to gain traction and support across multiple models. Could be a great week and into Labor Day wknd.

I'll be in Clemson for the LSU game where the forecasted highs are in the upper 70's with lows in the lower 60's.

[Darren]

Note, the signal for next week's front continues to gain traction and support across multiple models. Could be a great week and into Labor Day wknd.

I'll be in Clemson for the LSU game where the forecasted highs are in the upper 70's with lows in the lower 60's.

Hope you break the ugly steak of opener's we've got going, and enjoy the weather !

[Ducaholic]

Amen and will do!

[DComeaux]

I found this interesting. Someone that actually looks at historical data rather than depending on models.

Meteorologist Ross Ellet
Don't be surprised if the coming winter ends up becoming particularly brutal. This is not a winter forecast. I will post my thoughts in November when we have more known factors at hand. Even then, seasonal forecasts are only right about 70% of the time. With that said, we do have a good idea on how two big factors will influence the winter and I wanted to share what we are seeing behind the scenes.
The biggest is the El Nino Southern Oscillation. It is likely that this winter will be a neutral season (La Nada), and if it isn't then it would be a very low end La Nina. A neutral season or very weak El Nino or La Nina tends to promote a colder than normal winter for the Great Lakes region. A strong El Nino is typically very warm and dry. A strong La Nina is typically very warm and wet. A neutral season is colder with near normal precipitation assuming all other factors are equal. The other major player is the Polar Vortex. This is more unpredictable especially this far out. However, we are in an easterly QBO (Quasi-biennial Oscillation) phase right now. This has to do with winds near the equator very high in the atmosphere, but it can promote a weak polar vortex when it is in an easterly phase and lead to a colder than normal winter in the eastern 2/3rds of the atmosphere. Odds are the QBO will stay easterly through the winter, but we don't know for sure and there are other factors that can heavily influence the polar vortex that are unknown at the moment. With that said, the very early factors point toward a normal or even colder than normal winter with average to above average snowfall.
Speaking of snowfall, a normal winter would be a rude awakening at this point. We average 37.6" of snow each winter in Toledo. In the past 3 years, we have only had 36.8" combined. We have never recorded a snow total that low on record over 3 consecutive years. I have met a lot of people that tell me this is the new normal with climate change. I strongly disagree, because the data suggests otherwise. Despite the lack of snow the past 3 winters, the long term snowfall trend is consistent since at least the 1950s. While winter temperatures are increasing, winter precipitation is also increasing, and snowfall totals are about the same. In a nutshell, our historic data set suggests the pendulum will swing the other way towards more snow. When it does, it is going to surprise a lot of people. I don't know if the winter of 2025-26 is the season it all flips, but if it does, you will easily be able to trace the warning signs back to the summer of 2025 months before it happened.
The map below shows the temperatures in the previous “La Nada” winters over the last 25 years. The southeast and southwest were near normal temperature wise with the coldest weather compared to normal in the northern plains and Great Lakes.

533024749_1330668768417777_3642889652046991183_n.jpg

[Darren]

Thanks for dropping that in, DC. I too had seen it and enjoyed the assessment with all the long term data acknowledgements.

[Darren]

yup

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note the northerly flow

weather.jpg

[Duck Engr]

Bring it on! Blue wings be darned haha

[Rick]

Doesn't appear we'll see much, if any, of that down here by the Gulf of Whatever. Which is good news for our alligator opener on the 3rd.

[Darren]

Bring it on! Blue wings be darned haha

Def never want it during the teal season for sure, log says it's gonna feel good but not be productive.

[DComeaux]

The models I've seen today have come into agreement. This frame is of the August 28th.

gfs_T850a_us_31.png

[DComeaux]

Bring it on! Blue wings be darned haha

Def never want it during the teal season for sure, log says it's gonna feel good but not be productive.

I'm hoping for those fronts as hurricane deterrents. We need steering influencers, as many as we can get.

[Ducaholic]

Bring it on! Blue wings be darned haha

Def never want it during the teal season for sure, log says it's gonna feel good but not be productive.

To the contrary. Little cool fronts are the primary means for our success where BWT are concerned. But I can certainly understand where you are coming from.

[Duck Engr]

Bring it on! Blue wings be darned haha

Def never want it during the teal season for sure, log says it's gonna feel good but not be productive.

My logs agree. The hotter the later the better.

[jrock75]

Hotter the better is definitely the ticket for us as well, though I sure do enjoy those teal days in the blind with that first burst of cool air.

[Darren]

Bring it on! Blue wings be darned haha

Def never want it during the teal season for sure, log says it's gonna feel good but not be productive.

To the contrary. Little cool fronts are the primary means for our success where BWT are concerned. But I can certainly understand where you are coming from.

Think you're maybe hunting them passing through rather than having settled into a pattern?

For us, it's a matter of what we had now being gone when the north winds get rolling and cool temps come in.

[Ducaholic]

Bring it on! Blue wings be darned haha

Def never want it during the teal season for sure, log says it's gonna feel good but not be productive.

To the contrary. Little cool fronts are the primary means for our success where BWT are concerned. But I can certainly understand where you are coming from.

Think you're maybe hunting them passing through rather than having settled into a pattern?

For us, it's a matter of what we had now being gone when the north winds get rolling and cool temps come in.

Indeed!

[Darren]

Though fruitless for producing crabs, our crabbing adventure mid-morning on Friday brought me past some nearby primo shallow habitat. While gawking at a pretty pair of mottleds perched on a log, sure enough a lil bunch of 5 or 6 BWT flushed right behind them, then a moment later another similar sized group took flight, so it was at least a productive outing in that regard.

No other flights seen while down there this weekend outside of loads of BBWDs. I'm sure had I spent time just hanging around that shallow stuff with my bino's there were more to be seen.

[Darren]

Not sure I caught this from the Nov 2024 state aerial survey:

Increases from 2023 were observed only for blue winged teal (+48.7%) and pintail (+44.9%). All other species regularly and historically reported showed annual declines of greater than 20%. Not included in either table, 107,000 black-bellied whistling ducks were estimated across the coast, a 600% increase from the 15,000 estimated in 2023.

[Darren]

Now that the fronts of this week are old news, looking ahead to mid- to late- next week, more blues and purples plunging southward, representing departures from avg. temps toward the cooler end:

GFS.gif

Whether the pattern of early and often fronts continues to crunch time in mid-late October and first couple of weeks of Nov remains to be seen, but so long as we're not setting new record-late 90+ deg days on the calendar like in 2024, it's a win. Can't figure you have a chance with early migrators when 117-year old climatological records are being shattered with warmth.

Nov 7th 1.jpg

[Duck Engr]

Won’t pretend to know if it’ll help, but it sure doesn’t hurt!!

[DComeaux]

I hope we have a heavy frost at Halloween.

[Rick]

Snow to the Ferris wheel's axle in Little Rock, I tell you...

[Darren]

Snow to the Ferris wheel's axle in Little Rock, I tell you...

Well, it's a start at least, still looking promising Wed-Fri next week with significant departures from average low temps from Canadian border to the Gulf.

Thurs AM 9/4/2025

Capture2.JPG

Capture.JPG

Whatever helps cool the Gulf this time of year OK by me. Tracking this stuff remains a whole lot more fun than the alternative weather tracking........